Editor's note: Chris Hawke is a graduate of the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism and a journalist who has reported for over two decades from Beijing, New York, the United Nations, Tokyo, Bangkok, Islamabad and Kabul for AP, UPI and CBS. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

As COVID-19 infections rise in most U.S. states and with an election looming in less than two weeks, Americans have one big question on their mind ahead of the final presidential debate: What is Trump going to do if moderator Kristen Welker of NBC News hits the mute button on his mic? Trump has already complained that adding a mute button is unfair to him. He also says Welker will be unfair to him, and recently walked out of an interview with 60 Minutes anchor Lesley Stahl, for the same reason.

Judging by his recent public remarks, Trump is sure to try and focus his debate remarks on Joe Biden's troubled son Hunter, desperately repeating long-discredited charges of influence peddling. An article published in the New York Post claimed to reveal a trove of incriminating documents about Hunter Biden found in a mysterious laptop that somehow fell into the hands of far-right wing mastermind Steve Bannon and Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani.

The article was so far-fetched and obviously contrived that Twitter and Facebook initially refused to spread it. Unfortunately for Trump, the move to censor the fake news by the tech giants became the main story. The article highlighted Hunter Biden's well-document problems with substance abuse. It is likely that Trump will again try to rattle Joe Biden by bringing up Hunter's personal problems during the debate. This monomaniacal focus on Hunter Biden has already led to Trump's impeachment, and appears to be Trump's white whale even as his campaign is sinking.

However, about half of Americans have a family member or close friend who has been addicted to drugs, so Trump's attacks will backfire, reinforcing the perception that he is heartless. And no major news outlet has confirmed the Post story. It is even reported that the staff who wrote it did not want their names on it because they doubted it was true. Nonetheless, Trump keeps pushing forward with baseless attacks on Biden as corrupt, ironically going so far as to demand his attorney general indict Biden and former President Barack Obama before the election.

Trump's earlier lines of attack against Biden have not stuck, and indeed may have backfired. Republican insinuations that Biden is suffering age-related cognitive impairment look silly and possibly insulting to the elderly demographic while Biden has appeared calm, steady and reassuring in a series of high profile appearances. It is Trump who is now looking increasingly desperate, hitting a new low by refusing to condemn the bonkers conspiracy theory QAnon.

Biden goes into the debate with an 88 percent chance of winning the election, according to polling and statistics website FiveThirtyEight.com. He is favored to win in 11 of the 14 key battleground states, many by large margins. Also, Democrats have a 75 percent chance of taking the Senate. This would ensure Democrats could pass legislation to support Biden's agenda.

At this point, there aren't many undecided voters. Trump needs to rally his supporters to show up at the polls in greater numbers than Democrats. This explains why Trump is making aggressive far-fetched appeals that are likely to turn off most Americans but fire up his base. During the debate, Biden will likely ignore Trump's distractions and lies, and speak directly into the camera, trying to appeal directly to reassure voters that he will offer steady, sane and centrist leadership through these difficult times.

So far, Biden has resisted efforts to paint himself into a corner about whether he will pack the Supreme Court in response to the impending confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett. But he will need to decide how to respond to the personal attacks on his son. On the one hand, Biden will not want to be baited into sinking into personal barbs. But on the other hand, a failure to give an emotional or even angry response will seem inauthentic or even weak.

Two years ago, Biden said he would like to "beat the hell out of" Trump, with Trump accepting the challenge and replying that Biden would "go down fast and hard, crying all the way." But, what the U.S. really needs is a president that has his own mute button, who can put aside his own ego to focus on the good of the nation.

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