Editor's note: Chris Hawke is a graduate of the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism and a journalist who has reported for over two decades from Beijing, New York, the United Nations, Tokyo, Bangkok, Islamabad and Kabul for AP, UPI and CBS. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

With less than two weeks until the U.S. election, the message of voters toward President Donald Trump is likely to be: "You're fired." Trump has remained strikingly unpopular throughout his presidency, with an approval rating stubbornly in the low 40 percent range.

Going into the election, Democratic candidate Joe Biden is a strong favorite. The polling and statistics website FiveThirtyEight.com gives him an 87 percent chance of winning. The conventions and presidential debates have not changed the dynamics of the election.

The COVID-19 pandemic is on the rise again, the pace of the U.S. economic recovery is slowing, and the unemployment rate is at 7.9 percent. It is these harsh facts that are framing voters' choices.

More than 50 million voters have already cast their ballots, about a third of the expected final total turnout. The results will hinge on a handful of states including Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina. Biden is heavily favored in all those states except Florida, where he is forecast to have about a 70 percent chance to win, and North Carolina, where the candidates are neck and neck in polls.

When will we know the winners after the polls close on November 3? If the race is close, it could be weeks before all the mail-in ballots are counted. But if Biden wins in a landslide, we could know on election night. For example, Florida and North Carolina are expected to announce their results early. If Biden were to win both those states, Trump would have no realistic path to victory.

Skeptics point to Trump's surprise 2016 upset, and say that polls should be taken with a grain of salt. In addition, 2020 has been a very unpredictable year, and the surprises keep coming.

However, pollsters say they have learned from their mistakes in 2016, which included not paying enough attention to the education levels of voters. This turned out to be a major factor in voting in 2016, with non-college educated voters breaking heavily for Trump.

A major difference between 2016 and this year is that Biden's lead is much bigger, so even if the polls are significantly underestimating Trump's support, Biden will still probably win.

Inspired by the memory of the 2000 election, which was decided by the U.S. Supreme Court, both Democrats and Republicans have deployed armies of lawyers and volunteers to make sure the ballots are counted fairly. Due to COVID-19, voting by mail will play an outsized role in this election. Mail-in ballots tend to favor Democrats, so expect heated skirmishes along the lines of the hanging chad debates from 2000.

Nonetheless, FiveThirtyEight.com predicts there is only a 1 in 20 chance that the election will hinge on a recount in a closely contested state.

A key question is whether Trump will hand over power if he loses. This is because Trump has, on a number of occasions, called the election rigged, insisting that if he loses, it will be because of fraud. Trump has also laid the groundwork for confusion with efforts to reduce the capacity of the U.S. Postal Service.

New York Times conservative columnist Ross Douthat makes the case that any efforts by Trump to stay in office are doomed. Trump is not widely popular, he lacks the political skill to cut deals and organize coalitions, he does not have the support of the military or the media outside of Fox News, his own Supreme Court has frequently ruled against him, and he has been at odds with his own CIA and FBI. When people have taken to the streets in large numbers over the past year, it has been to oppose Trump and the policies he represents.

Douthat points out this does not mean there won't be far right violence, possibly encouraged by the president himself. During the first presidential debate, for example, Trump called on the Proud Boys, a far right group that embraces political violence, to "stand back and stand by." Earlier this month, six militia members have been charged by the FBI with a plot to kidnap the governor of Michigan, a frequent Trump target.

Far right violence after the election has the potential to be tragic and disruptive. However, these groups lack popular support and do not threaten to overwhelm the machinery of the U.S. federal government.

Trump has joked at his political rallies that if he loses the election he will move out of the country. This may be a smart option.

Biden, who campaigned on a pledge to bring the country together, is very unlikely to allow the prosecution of Trump based on the 10 instances of obstruction of justice detailed in the Mueller report.

However, Biden has no power over New York state prosecutors, who are building a case against Trump based on possible financial crimes and insurance fraud.

Considering seven people in Trump's inner circle have already been convicted of crimes, there is a very real chance that after the U.S. public says "You're fired" in the election, a jury of Trump's peers may say, "You're guilty."

Of course, the election results are not set in stone. Sometimes a gambler rolls a die and gets a lucky six when he really needs it. Trump has about the same chance of pulling off a second upset victory: unlikely, but very possible.

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