Editor's Note: Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst. The article reflects the author's views and not necessarily those of CGTN.

Some Arab trade associations and individuals are boycotting French products in opposition to President Emmanuel Macron's recent controversial comments about Islam. The French leader condemned what he described as "Islamic separatism" in his country's society earlier this month following the terrorist beheading of a school teacher who allegedly showed his students satirical cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad as part of a free speech class. Those participating in the boycott are also incensed at President Macron's attitude towards the whole affair after he defended France's constitutionally secular state and the right to share such cartoons.

The issue is extremely sensitive because it raises questions about free speech vs. hate speech, religion vs. secularism, legal rights vs. moral rights and Western social norms vs. Islamic norms, all of which are very sensitive to both sides of the debate. It's not the purpose of this article to argue who's right and who isn't. It's up to every person to draw their own conclusions based on their personal values. What will instead be discussed is the relationship between globalization processes, foreign boycotts and geopolitics.

Globalization is the first factor influencing the course of events. France has historically prided itself on its diversity and ability to assimilate and integrate different ethno-religious elements into its society. That model has been put to the test in recent years as can be seen by the widespread outrage among minority groups in response to President Macron's latest comments about Islam. In addition, there's greater global awareness about events inside of France among foreign audiences, particularly in the majority-Muslim countries of the Middle East, which in turn inspired many of them to launch their boycott of French products in response.

That boycott wouldn't have been possible had it not been for the social and economic globalization processes that gave them greater awareness to what's happening in other countries and the choice not to buy certain products if they don't want to. Boycotts can be effective not just because they draw more attention to a particular cause, but because they hit their targets' pocketbooks even if the direct targets only superficially represent the real target but have nothing to do with the problem in question. Nevertheless, the optics are enough to send a powerful message to the real target. In this case, the real target is the French government.

Even so, governments don't usually react to symbolic pressure, unless such tactics have a credible chance of harming their real interests. In this case, the Arab boycott of French products not only negatively affects France's regional reputation in the Middle East and reduces the revenue that the French government could derive from taxing its successful companies active in the region, but it could also impact Paris's geopolitical calculations. President Macron has tried to behave more assertively in the Middle East during his time in office, most recently through his personal involvement in Lebanon and in criticizing Turkey's maritime activities.

In fact, up until this month's terrorist attack and the sociopolitical fallout, observers would have been right to describe France as being on the geopolitical rebound in its former "sphere of influence." It even looked like President Macron was preparing to lead an emerging anti-Turkey regional coalition. But now such prospects are questionable given that he has severely offended the sensitivities of the region's people even if not all of them participate in the boycott. He's now in a dilemma. He is forced to either continue supporting sovereignty at home as he describes it or conceding to external pressure for geopolitical reasons.

The answers to the above questions and dilemmas will decide the course of France's sociopolitical development. France's geopolitical goals in the Middle East are now in jeopardy since its president's strong support of his country's secular society is causing controversy among many Muslims. It'll remain to be seen whether the Arab boycott lasts long enough to make a difference, but it's still a powerful act of protest. Considering the emerging fault lines in the French society, this might not be the last boycott either.

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