Editor's note: Nikola Mikovic is a freelance journalist based in Serbia. He covers mostly Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian foreign policies, and writes for multiple web-magazines. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko survived the "first wave" of anti-government protests that erupted after the controversial presidential election held on August 9. Backed by Russia, he managed to consolidate his power, but the opposition that is supported by certain Western countries did not give up its fight and has called for a nationwide strike.  

Since mass demonstrations did not result in a regime change in Minsk, exiled opposition figure Svetlana Tikhanovskaya recently issued an ultimatum to Lukashenko demanding his resignation. Belarusian leader, expectedly, refused to hand over power to the person that, according to official results, got only 10 percent of the vote. This week, Lithuania-based Tikhanovskaya and the exiled Coordination Council for the Transfer of Power staged a work stoppage in several state-owned Belarusian companies, hoping that such a pressure would force Lukashenko to make significant concessions to the opposition. 

Although some top industrial enterprises joined the strike, at this point their actions do not represent a serious threat for Belarusian export oriented economy. On the other hand, owners of the small scale private companies are aware that strike actions would affect primarily their own businesses. It is worth noting that some private enterprises did not even officially go on strike, but have closed their offices for "re-registration"or for a "cleaning day." Workers that are striking at state-owned enterprises reportedly took leave or time off at their own expense, in order to avoid being penalized.  

Overall, the majority of Belarusian firms kept working as usual. However, in the long term, the Coordination Council for the Transfer of Power – whose members are based mostly in Lithuania and Poland – could try to push for a Polish style nationwide strike that led to the end of the communist rule in the Eastern European country in 1989. For the time being, however, most of their actions have been unsuccessful. It is worth remembering that the opposition already attempted to stage a general strike in Belarus in August when Lukashenko was on the verge of his political survival, but their plan did not work. 

This time, students are the main focus of the West-backed opposition. However, students' protests are expected to have very little effect on Belarusian economy, although they clearly demonstrate that Lukashenko's youth policy suffered a huge defeat. The vast majority of the protesters in Belarus are young people, which indicates that Belarusian leader, who has been in power since 1994, already lost the war for hearts and minds of young generations. Even if he manages to stabilize the situation in the country, his popularity will never be as high as it was in the past. That could be one of the reasons why he recently said that he will not run for president once his term expires in 2025. 

Given that Russia is pushing for constitutional reform in Belarus, it would not be improbable for Lukashenko to step down earlier. In other words, his political retirement is possible once the country changes its constitution, holds a referendum and new elections. That is why Belarusian President is trying to form a "systemic opposition," and there are indications that some of his former foes – primarily Viktor Babariko, who spent 20 years working for the local unit of Russia's Gazprombank – could participate in constitutional reforms.  

On the other hand, Lukashenko will likely try to minimize the influence of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and the Coordination Council for the Transfer of Power. So far their actions did not result in the overthrow of the Belarusian leader, but have pushed the Eastern European country deeper into Russian geopolitical orbit. That is why some Western powers, that openly support Tikhanovskaya, may have to eventually change their approach toward Belarus and accept reality on the ground. There are signals that the situation could develop on that direction. 

For instance, the United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who just a month ago said that Alexander Lukashenko is "not the legitimate President of Belarus," reportedly held a phone conversation with Belarusian leader on October 24. Pro-government outlets in Belarus already pointed out that "the U.S. recognized Lukashenko," although it is unlikely that relations between Minsk and Washington will thaw any time soon.  

Western powers are expected to keep pressuring Lukashenko, one way or another, but as long as he is firmly supported by Russia, as well as Belarusian security apparatus, he does not have to worry about his post. In the mid-term, foreign actors could make a deal that would be acceptable for all parties involved in Belarusian political turmoil. In that case, Viktor Babariko could play a significant role, as he seems to be an ideal compromise for Russia and the West. 

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