Editor's note: Freddie Reidy is a freelance writer based in London. He studied history and history of art at the University of Kent, Canterbury, specializing in Russian history and international politics. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

On November 4, 2016, one of the major talking points was how pollsters had got their predictions so badly wrong. So too today, even though Biden seems to have a bigger chance of winning at this stage, many are wondering why Trump has not performed as badly as the media predicted.

Aside from an ineffective term in opposition, the underestimation stemmed from the Democratic party's choice of candidate. After all, it was two terms of Barack Obama and the candidate that gave rise to Donald Trump in the first place.

Biden's infamous quote "If you have a problem figuring out whether to vote for me or Trump, then you ain't black" highlighted a Democratic assumption based on racial lines, which hasn't been born out at the ballot box in many instances but also indicates a frustration at demographic labeling.

In Florida, a vital state for Trump's chances, support among Hispanic communities switched from Hillary-supporting Democrats to backing the incumbent. Many first-generation voters from socialist or communist neighboring countries had expressed concern with Biden's policies and were particularly worried about the powerful left wing of the party.

Much had also been made of a "blue surge" prompted by the Black Lives Matter movement. While Biden did receive considerable support from many black voters, CNN exit polls suggest that his shares of both black male and female voters were down by seven percent compared to Hillary Clinton's back in 2016 elections.

CNN exit polls also suggest that voters under 30 meanwhile, increased their support for Biden by eight percent, indicating an effective job by Democrats to capitalise on the Trump outrage factor and tap into a new voting demographic which is perhaps more liberal and likely to vote than previous generations.

The election had been billed as a referendum on President Trump and it must be said that while the result may well go Biden's way, it has not proven to be a repudiation of Trump or his policies.

From the standpoint of an undecided voter, other than a noted difference in COVID-19 response, it is hard to see what has changed in policy terms on the Democratic side since 2016 or even 2008. A point that President Trump was later to seize upon in debates. "You were in office for eight years and got nothing done."

Biden had emerged as the centrist candidate, to reclaim the lost blue-collar voter in America's rust belt. That strategic gamble seems to have paid off for the Biden team with the pandemic eroding Trump's position with a spike in unemployment.

While the shift may prove fatal to Trump's chances, it is a far cry from the promised "blue wave". MSNBC anchor Rachel Meadow remarked that "It's been remarkable to see the stability not only between the 2016 and 2020 presidential map, but also in Congressional races and Senate races." Continuing to concede that there was "no wave" and the actual electoral map was closer to "pond".

The fact that this is surprising to left-wing politicians and commentators is part of the reason Biden has not yet given his acceptance speech.

Many of President Trump's policies have become accepted orthodoxy and will be hard for a Biden administration to repeal. It may be surprising to some Democrats but not all Trump voters are alt-right.

Policies such as America-first resonate with lower income workers who have seen their jobs outsourced. Pressuring NATO to meet 2% spending targets resonates with voters used to seeing public services cut while defence spending remains high. A tougher stance on China is also seen as an active defense of the U.S. after two terms of President Obama's withdrawal.

Donald Trump broke the mould and was determined to forge his own path and "drain the swamp", freeing himself from not just the shackles of two terms of Obama but from the political establishment entirely. Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and even his GOP predecessor George W. Bush, who many felt was not staunch enough in his defense of conservative values, were all part of established political elites in which the public had a wavering faith.

While we await a conclusive election result, we have been reminded once more that the public will not be swayed by traditional arguments and conventional wisdom. There is still high demand for an authentic voice against the establishment. Even if the former vice president goes on to win, he will need to listen and lend his own voice to the disenfranchised both on the losing Republican side but on his own.

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