Fighting has come to an end in the Nagorno-Karabakh region a week after Armenia agreed to sign a Russia-brokered peace accord sealing its defeat to longtime rival Azerbaijan.
But despite Armenia ceding swathes of territory and the deployment of a Russian peacekeeping force, a lasting solution to the decades-long conflict remains elusive.
Return of territory
As part of the deal, Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh must return the Aghdam, Kalbajar and Lachin districts to Azerbaijan starting on November 20, with December 1 as the completion deadline.
These districts and four others that Baku captured during the six-week conflict had been occupied by Armenia since a post-Soviet war in the 1990s.
Though not in Nagorno-Karabakh proper, those districts formed a security belt around the region.
Now tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians who were encouraged to move into the region after the 1990s war are fleeing as Azerbaijanis did some 30 years ago.
Ethnic Armenians load a truck as they prepare to leave their home in the village Maraga, the Martakert area, of Nagorno-Karabakh region, November 18, 2020. /AP
AFP journalists have witnessed a mass exodus from the Kalbajar district, whose handover was delayed until November 25 to allow the Armenians time to leave the region.
Many set their homes alight to make them uninhabitable for the incoming Azerbaijanis.
An influx of refugees is expected to result in an economic, social and humanitarian challenge for Armenia.
A man believed to be an ethnic Armenian reacts as he stands in front of his house in flames in Cherektar, a village in an area in Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is soon to be turned over to Azerbaijan, November 14, 2020. /Reuters
Russian peacekeepers
Despite losing swathes of territory, including the strategically vital second-largest town of Shusha, Nagorno-Karabakh will see its existence guaranteed by some 2,000 Russian peacekeepers to be deployed for an initial period of five years.
"The presence of Russian soldiers in the region will be one of the most important factors in ensuring that a war does not start again," Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said.
An image taken from a video published on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Facebook official account. The prime minister is addressing the nation, November 11, 2020. /AP
The Russian mission will also guard the strategic Lachin corridor, the sole link between the region and Armenia.
Between 75,000 and 90,000 of the region's 150,000 inhabitants have already fled the fighting, and local authorities have called on residents to return.
The first buses began arriving in the gion's main city Stepanakert at the weekend.
Read more: Shell-shocked Armenians return to Nagorno-Karabakh after peace deal
Ethnic Armenians look out from a bus returning from Stepanakert, in Yerevan, Armenia, November 16, 2020. /AP
Elusive lasting solution
A long-term solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which has plagued the South Caucasus since the fall of the former Soviet Union in 1991, is not mooted in the peace accord ending the latest fighting.
Since the mid-1990s, efforts by the cochairs of the Minsk Group, Russia, France and the U.S., have not produced lasting results.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has adopted a hard stance in victory, backtracking on an earlier promise of autonomy for Nagorno-Karabakh.
This photo provided late on November 16, 2020, by Azerbaijan's Presidential Press Office, shows Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev greeting Azerbaijanis as he visits districts of Fuzuli and Jabrayil, November 16, 2020. /AP
"Karabakh will have no (autonomous) status as long as I am president," Aliyev has said.
Baku can also count on the unwavering support of Turkey, which after having armed and supported Azerbaijan in the latest war, has established itself as a key player in the region.
Read more: Turkish parliament approves peacekeepers for Azerbaijan
Ankara will also play a part in the peacekeeping operations, even if its role remains vague.
Aliyev, who sees the Minsk Group members as pro-Armenian, has welcomed a new negotiating format that would include Turkey.