Editor's note: Ken Moak taught economic theory, public policy and globalization at the university level for 33 years. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
China's "socialism with Chinese characteristics" economic development and management theory is not perfect but few, if any, would dispute its success in accelerating and sustaining economic growth.
Though it is not a formal economic model in the Western sense, it is an "idea" or theory on how a backward and impoverished economy could leapfrog development and growth. At the heart of the theory is a strong and competent central government with the authority to implement pragmatic, effective and timely policies.
This gives the Chinese government the ability to weather strong headwinds. While the government was uncertain of what COVID-19 was or how to deal with the virus at the beginning, it quickly imposed strong and effective lockdown measures to curb the virus' rapid spread and damage on the economy. The result, though criticized by the West as "draconian" or "illiberal," was stunning, controlling the pandemic within a few months, reopening the economy sooner than any major economy on earth.
The early reopening of the economy coupled with the Chinese government's easing fiscal and monetary measures of helping businesses and consumers to weather the economic downturn, were probably responsible for the Chinese economy being the only major one expected to enjoy positive growth of around 2 percent in 2020 and 8 percent in 2021.
Equally, if not more noteworthy is most experts predicting the Chinese economy to grow at upwards of 5 percent in the next five or more years. Some Western countries, on the other hand, remain stuck in the pandemic crisis and recession. In this sense, China will be the global "economic beacon" in the foreseeable future.
The relative optimistic economic outlook might be influenced by China's "dual circulation" strategy of rightly designating domestic demand as the engine of economic growth. Domestic consumption exceeded $6 trillion in 2019, not far from the U.S.' $6.2 trillion, according to Chinese government statistics.
That number represented only around 40 percent of GDP, suggesting consumption has considerable room for expansion, which in turn could enhance and sustain economic growth. Consumption as a percent of GDP in major economies harbored around 70 percent.
People wearing protective masks walk at a shopping area in Beijing, China, September 20, 2020. /CFP
People wearing protective masks walk at a shopping area in Beijing, China, September 20, 2020. /CFP
China has an increasingly affluent market of 1.4 billion of whom around 30 percent or over 400 million are classified as middle class with enormous purchasing power, given its large savings rate and little consumer debt with the exception of mortgage loans. In short, the Chinese market could buy large quantities of foreign imports.
Other economic indicators also clearly point to positive recovery in the post-pandemic era. The Purchasing Manufacturing Index, a measurement of manufacturing activities reached a decade-high of 54.9 in November this year, largely due to strong foreign demand, particularly pandemic-related products. Retail sales and fixed investment respectively rose 4.3 percent and 1.8 percent year on year in October 2020.
The data should not be a surprise in light of the government's history of reversing economic downturns. During the 2008 financial crisis, which sunk the Chinese economy from almost 10 percent to 6.5 percent, the government mounted a huge stimulus package of nearly $580 billion, culminating in raising growth to 9.2 percent in 2009 and jumpstarting economic growth in resource-based countries such as Brazil and Russia. Since then, China has contributed to almost a third of global economic growth.
It seems history is repeating itself, particularly with China's recent signing onto the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), expanding the Belt and Road Initiative trade and investment, and promoting multilateralism or globalization.
China's regional and global economic importance could further increase with the RCEP. The agreement takes into consideration the different stages of development between developed and developing economies. In this sense, trade and investment across borders would be more efficient, thus promoting economic growth in all member countries. Accounting for half of the RCEP's combined GDP, China will be the epicenter of Asia-Pacific and world economic growth.
China is also expected to increase trade with and investment in countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. Most if not all of the participating countries will welcome additional Chinese trade and investment, particularly when some Western countries are still stuck in the COVID-19 pandemic quagmire.
China could again lead the world out of the pandemic-induced recession because the government is playing the "right cards" and have resources and political will to do so. For example, the Chinese government will be spending hundreds of billions of dollars on urbanization, infrastructure construction at home and abroad and $1.4 trillion on innovation, providing the world tremendous export opportunities. China's global economic importance is not in doubt.
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