Editor's note: Ju Jiandong is Chang Jiang Scholar of the Chinese Ministry of Education, Unigroup chair professor at the PBC School of Finance at Tsinghua University and director for the Center for International Finance and Economic Research. The article reflects the author's opinion and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

It was not easy for Donald Trump to leave, nor was it an easy path for Joe Biden. He was sworn in under the protection of 25,000 National Guard troops. Biden successfully taking office shows that, on the one hand, the United States has successfully resolved the constitutional crisis that was brought on by the presidential election. 

On the other hand, it also shows the U.S. is on the verge of a crisis - the pandemic crisis and a domestic political crisis. Biden's inaugural speech emphasized the unity of the U.S., facing and resolving crises together. Unlike Trump, who mentioned China four times in his resignation speech, Biden did not mention China once, suggesting that the handling of domestic affairs is Biden's primary consideration and the focus of his administration.

A new stage of 'great-power competition'

Will Biden end the China-U.S. competition started by Trump and return to strategic cooperation between the two powers? The answer is no. When China's manufacturing output value exceeded that of the U.S. and its GDP in 2018 accounted for more than 60 percent of the U.S. GDP, China and the U.S. entered a stage of competition between great powers. It is determined by national interest. No matter who becomes president, the nature of the "great-power competition" will not change. 

Trump and Biden have very different styles and represent different interest groups, so China-U.S. competition will also have new features. Trump is straightforward and rough, while Biden is refined and composed. Trump insists on American unilateralism, while Biden seeks global cooperation. Trump emphasizes business while Biden emphasizes value. These differences have led to a shift in style for the U.S., with Biden at the helm. If Trump's competition has the characteristics of American unilateralism and reflects the arrogance of the populism of the middle and lower classes in the U.S., then Biden, on behalf of the American elite, is trying to lead its allies to compete with China and usher in an era of elite competition.

The competition enters a stalemate

The six areas of "great-power competition" are economic aggregate, manufacturing, high technology, military, finance and global governance. China is dominant in manufacturing while the U.S. still has an advantage in five areas: economic aggregate, high-tech, military, finance, and global governance. Therefore, the strong and weak situation has not changed. However, compared to 2018, China's economic aggregate has risen from 60 percent of the U.S. economy to 71 percent. Despite the China-U.S. trade dispute that Trump claimed was "easy to win," China's economy still weathered the storm. Therefore, the China-U.S. competition has shifted from Trump's "full offensive" stage to a "strategic stalemate" stage.

Crisis prevention is the key to offense and defense for both sides

China-U.S. competition depends on which country can effectively prevent crises and maintain long-term economic growth. Since 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has pushed the U.S. into a public health crisis, while China has successfully controlled the pandemic. 

COVID-19 has shifted the power equation for the U.S. and China. The position of the U.S. has gradually changed from a strong lead to a stalemate compared to China. To successfully fight the pandemic, the U.S. should cooperate with China. Similarly, in other areas where China and the U.S. have common interests, such as climate change and trade areas that are mutually beneficial, like the export of American agricultural and energy products and the export of Chinese textiles, we will see a more cooperative side from the Biden administration.

At the same time, China is also facing the risks of a "Japan crisis," a "financial crisis and financial blockade," and the "de-sinicization of the global governance system." In the new stage of the Biden era, the competition between China and the U.S. in high technology, finance and global governance may become more intense. 

What we need to pay attention to is that Biden's team has the possibility and ability to lure China's economy into a "the number two trap," which means that in the global economy, the United States will specialize in high-tech industries, and China will specialize in the processing and manufacturing industries. And this will result in the U.S. curbing China's high-tech industry. It is a strategy "to subdue the enemy without fighting." 

Over the next four years, three main indicators for judging the competitive situation between China and the U.S. will emerge. The first is whether the annual growth rate of China's GDP is 3.7 percent is higher, on average, than the annual growth rate of the U.S. economy. The second is whether China's tech sector is catching up with the U.S. or being contained and distanced by the U.S. The third is whether RMB internationalization is accelerating and if China's international financial system is healthier and safer.

Will Biden shift the focus of conflict?

Biden's first task is to unite a divided U.S., saving it from the verge of crisis. American interest groups confront each other, but they are basically the same in terms of competing with China. To alleviate domestic conflict, it cannot be ruled out that Biden may adopt an old method in American history, which is to establish a common enemy for all interest groups in the U.S. Confrontation with China may become a goal and a tactical target for Biden to shift the focus from domestic conflicts.

China welcomes the competition. The purpose of China's competition is not to defeat the U.S. but to compete and co-exist, to achieve healthy development for China, the U.S., Europe and the whole world. If the goal of American competition with China is to defeat China, then I feel sad for its contemporary elites. Unfortunately, in Biden's team, the noise of defeating China can still be heard.

It is an inevitable trend that the world has entered an era of innovation, cooperative development and diversified co-existence. Those who deviate from the main axis of this era, no matter how narcissistic, will be eliminated by the era. To borrow Trump's words, we wish Biden "good luck."