Editor's note: Djoomart Otorbaev is the former Prime Minister of the Kyrgyz Republic, a distinguished professor of the Belt and Road School of Beijing Normal University, and a member of Nizami Ganjavi International Center. The article reflects the author's views, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

There is no reason not to believe the speaker of the Iranian Parliament. However, still, his latest statement on Iran's official request to become a full member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) sounded like "A bolt from the blue." Upon arrival in Tehran after a 3-day trip to Moscow, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said that preliminary works for Iran's full membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) unites Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia, will begin soon. 

Many still do not believe that this statement will develop into a real process. Some experts even question whether this statement contains elements of political maneuvering. Despite existing doubts, it would be essential to analyze the possible consequences of such an unexpected step.

Iran obtaining the status of a full member of the EAEU can fundamentally change the political landscape in Eurasia, especially in the South Caucasus and the Middle East. As a member of the EAEU, Iran would cooperate with its members at the highest strategic partnership level. Membership in the organization will give the country serious trump cards in the implementation of its foreign policy. 

Although the EAEU is a purely economic union, Iran believes it is the military-political component that can provide a severe security belt for the Islamic Republic. Expanding trade and economic opportunities are also of significant interest, especially amid a stagnant economy, intense U.S. pressure and gloomy predictions about the future of the nuclear deal that former U.S. President Donald Trump canceled.

Economic cooperation should also lead to closer political interaction. Taking such a step, Iran is finally emerging from strategic loneliness. By acquiring a new security umbrella, Tehran will be much more confident in negotiating with the U.S. on nuclear issues. Perhaps in the future, people will remember that the Americans themselves pushed Iran to join the post-Soviet "club" in which Moscow is the leading player.

Despite all difficulties, the EAEU is getting on its feet and is enjoying increasing interest from many countries. By the end of last year, Moldova, Uzbekistan, and Cuba joined the union as observers. Vietnam, Iran, Singapore, and Serbia are already in an alliance under a free trade zone treaty. About 50 states have expressed their interest in cooperation with the bloc at different levels.

If earlier the EAEU was considered only as a project of integration of the countries of the former Soviet Union, then with the participation of Tehran, the alliance can go beyond the post-Soviet borders for the first time. The union's borders would reach the Persian Gulf. Iran, with its population of 83 million, is a strong economic power. In terms of nominal GDP, its economy is the twenty-second globally, the largest among Western Asia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Iran ranks fourth in the world and accounts for about 9.5 percent of the world's total oil reserves.

Thus, Tehran's strengthening of the union will bring the EAEU to a new level and will not let it just "stew in its own juice." Armenia can acquire clear advantages. For this northern neighbor of Iran, removing customs barriers will be beneficial from receiving economic preferences and transit opportunities. As for Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, these countries' economic relations with Iran remain limited. Therefore, it is evident that the main negotiations on finalizing the future union treaty's provisions will be conducted with Russia.

When preparing the agreement, many problems will naturally arise, as was the case with the deal's preparation on a free trade zone between the EAEU and Iran. The process was long and tricky, but they managed to reach a consensus. With the parties' mutual desire and the presence of a political will, the contracting partners should smooth out all the rough edges. The prospects for cooperation will undoubtedly be more potent than the complexity of the negotiation process.

Some other sharp problems will arise, such as opening the labor market and creating employment opportunities for Iranians in the EAEU countries. Will the current members of the association be ready for such an unpredictable turn of events? Will migration from Iran complicate the problems with the current status quo among the countries? That one and a multitude of other issues need to be addressed.

Iran can become an ideal partner in unblocking its own and developing new transport and energy corridors in the South Caucasus. It became essential after the end of the Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Iran considers the forthcoming opening of transport and energy routes to establish a direct land connection with Russia through the Nakhichevan region of Azerbaijan, parts of Armenia, and Georgia. The Russian side is also interested in promoting this idea.

Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev recently said that there will be a railway connection between Russia and Iran on the territory of Nakhichevan, as well as a rail link between Iran and Armenia and between Turkey and Russia. In the event of the dynamic development of the South Caucasus's transport and energy infrastructure, there may not be many obstacles for Azerbaijan to join the EAEU in the future. And who knows what will be Turkey's policy in this direction, a country that is not allowed and probably will never be allowed to enter the European Union.

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