Scientists have warned that unfair COVID-19 vaccine distribution could not only hurt poor countries, but also rich ones, if the spread of virus variants continues to undermine vaccines.

Ever since a COVID-19 variant was first reported in South Africa, the pandemic has worsened in Africa. Infected cases have climbed as the variant has shown the ability to reinfect people. While richer countries like the U.S. hope to vaccinate most of their populations within months, poorer countries like Kenya can only expect to reach small portions of their citizens in the meantime.

Roughly three-quarters of the vaccine doses given globally have gone to only 10 countries, while at least 30 countries have yet to inject anyone.

The African continent occupies 17 percent of the world's population, but only enjoys roughly 2 percent of the global administrated vaccine doses. Unvaccinated doctors and nurses have died this year in countries like Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria and Zimbabwe, further depleting the continent's health systems and capability to overcome variants. 

Rich countries, however, began vaccinating their healthcare workers three months ago, leaving Kenya, one of the continent's richest countries, behind.

"While these Western countries are still scrambling for vaccines, Africa will have to wait, and this may be a sad situation," said Miseda Mumbo, vice chancellor of the Great Lakes University of Kisumu in Kenya.

Like many developing countries, Kenya is relying on the global mechanism for procuring and distributing vaccines known as COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access (COVAX), built on the idea that every country should enjoy fair vaccine distribution.

However, instead of going through COVAX, many wealthy nations bought doses directly from pharmaceutical companies, hampering international vaccine cooperation and delaying shipments to the developing world. U.S. President Joe Biden has promised to have vaccines available for all U.S. adults by this May. Israel has vaccinated 60 percent of its people, and Britain has inoculated 41 percent.

Due to rich countries stockpiling vaccines, Kenya is expecting to inoculate only 30 percent of its people, or about 16 million out of almost 50 million people by mid-2023, even under the best of circumstances. The initial shipment of doses is being doled to healthcare workers and other essential workers. 

Sadly, the situation might be worse if the wealthy Western countries continue this practice. It's time for them to stop, keep their promises to COVAX and truly sharing the vaccine as global public goods.