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EU risks recovery with stimulus delay
Freddie Reidy
The euro sculpture in front of the Eurotower in Frankfurt, Germany. /Getty

The euro sculpture in front of the Eurotower in Frankfurt, Germany. /Getty

Editor's note: Freddie Reidy is a freelance writer based in London. He studied history and history of art at the University of Kent, Canterbury, specializing in Russian history and international politics. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

With lockdowns in force across much of the European Union (EU) and a vaccine program dogged by delay, the EU now appears to additionally be at risk of choking off its recovery due to a recovery plan that has been characterized as "too slow and complicated."

On April 7, French Finance and Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire bluntly signaled his position on the European recovery fund, stating that the plan was "not on the right track" and as a consequence, he is "deeply concerned."

Responding to the comments, Irish Finance Minister and Eurogroup President Paschal Donohue told Bloomberg such a "concern is well understood by the European Commission."

Le Maire's comments follow those of European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. Lagarde characteristically raised a metaphorical eyebrow at what the ECB sees as bureaucratic "procrastination."

The apparent procrastination is brought about by the EU commission's condition that the 700 billion euro ($830 billion) recovery fund is tied to structural reform. Reforms must then be approved by the commission before being subsequently ratified by the individual parliaments of member states.

Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis has said that "we expect most countries to submit their plan towards the end of April," but cautioned that "while speed is important to get the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) funding flowing as soon as possible, it is equally important to ensure the quality of the finalized plans."

The concern among many is the potential conflation of a delayed vaccination program and a delayed economic recovery plan. Such a situation would place the EU at a serious disadvantage compared with the U.S., which has a vaccination program running at a far faster pace, as well as a $1.9 trillion recovery fund that is already paying out despite being ratified half a year later than the EU fund.

A Eurosystem monetary authority sign stands outside the European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters ahead of the bank's rate announcement in Frankfurt, Germany, July 16, 2020. /Getty

A Eurosystem monetary authority sign stands outside the European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters ahead of the bank's rate announcement in Frankfurt, Germany, July 16, 2020. /Getty

Indeed, French President Emmanuel Macron was equally damning when forcefully proclaiming, "The United States of America was more innovative, more ambitious, it dreamed more than us and it spent more money to innovate faster and stronger."

While the EU is actually on track to bring the fund on stream, the perennial issue of the bloc's slowly turning cogs seems to be causing considerable unease. Tying twin ratification to the delivery of the recovery package risks prolonging the process until the absolute deadline with whichever nation yet to ratify, handed considerable influence over the rest of the bloc in securing concessions.

Illustrative of the difficulties, European member states are required to target 3 percent structural deficits, at a maximum. However, the commission forecasts that the actual figure will be closer to double that. Paschal Donohue was quick to defend European members' measures that provided 8 percent of EU income in relief in 2020, but a 6 percent deficit across EU member economies would equate to a debt load of 100 percent of the bloc's output.

As time continues to pass and the outlook across the Atlantic and in Asia continues to improve, the EU will continue to fall behind without the deployment of the recovery fund. Member states have to provide vast sums of capital to prop up struggling industries as borrowing soars.

On April 6, the French government was forced once again to inject a further 4 billion euros ($4.75 billion) into Air France-KLM, indicative of the dependence many industries are counting on for survival.

Le Maire was clear when presenting his solution: "If we want a strong economy, we need to invest, and invest right now."

Indeed, it would appear that the cost of delay carries a comparable level of economic risk to that of a larger fund with fewer conditions. As ever with the EU, the path to action is by way of consensus, and for now, consensus appears predicated on fiscal caution. 

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com.)

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