Editor's note: Thomas O. Falk is a London-based political analyst and commentator. He holds a Master of Arts in international relations from the University of Birmingham and specializes in U.S. affairs. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN. 

Boris Johnson has faced two pivotal occurrences in these past 12 months.

The COVID-19 pandemic hit the island hard. Various lockdowns and one of the world's highest mortality rates raised doubts about whether or not Boris Johnson had the ability to lead the country through a major crisis.

But Johnson gradually turned things around. His COVID-19 management has become a success as of late, primarily due to impressive vaccination figures. Over 50 percent of British adults have had their first jab, and, unlike in continental Europe, where many countries are facing the third wave, Great Britain is gradually reopening towards some form of normalcy.

Besides the pandemic, it has been Brexit that has occupied the mind of many Britons, albeit somewhat in the background. However, despite all the horror scenarios that were forecasted to occur immediately, irreversible damage to the country's economy and outsourcing of jobs did not materialize.

On the contrary, one might think. The economic outlook appears largely positive after the economy decreased by nearly 10 percent in 2020. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects growth for Great Britain of 5.3 percent in 2021 – more than the European Union and the U.S.

With this outlook both economically and in terms of the pandemic, Boris Johnson has seemingly reinvented himself. His approval ratings are rising steadily, and his Conservative Party leads Labor by 9 percent in recent polls.

However, these aforementioned positive trends remain volatile snapshots and will have to stand the test of time for three reasons.

First, the risk of a third wave hitting the UK is very real. The reopening of shops and beer gardens on April 12 will inevitably correlate with increased contacts among individuals and, most likely, rising cases. The latter could ruin the previous successes and shift public perception quickly.

Second, contrary to the IMF's projection, the UK's trade business has been deteriorating.

British exports to the European Union decreased by 40.7 percent in January. Imports from the EU fell by 28.8 percent in the same month.

Since the UK officially left the EU, 25 percent of all British companies have ceased their EU business due to the bureaucracy now in force (e.g. import sales tax, requirements for importing food and fresh fish, customs forms) with additional costs making these businesses unattainable. 

One could assume that the primary driver of the trade slump was the pandemic, not Brexit. However, Germany's exports only decreased by 14.7 percent in comparison, which suggests that this assumption is inaccurate.

The slump may not be temporary either.  A new report by Thomas Sampson, associate professor of economics at London School of Economics projects that British exports to the EU could be 36 percent lower over the next decade than it would have been as an EU member state.

The latter is particularly worrying for Great Britain since the post-Brexit period, the insurance for a prosperous Great Britain, a trade deal with the United States, does cultivate beyond exploratory talks.

Giant leaps that could compensate for deficits with Europe are therefore not to be expected.

President Joe Biden's Press Secretary Jen Psaki recently said there was no set schedule for closing a deal. Psaki said the White House's top priorities were fighting the COVID-19 and easing the burden on Americans. In short: the idea of a swift deal between London and Washington was a miscalculation. 

Third, Brexit carries implications that go far beyond the economy. As such, the ever-lingering tensions in Northern Ireland have exacerbated into riots and clashes between the pro-British unionists and the supporters of a united Ireland.

The unionists opposed the agreement between London and the EU, according to which goods imported into Northern Ireland from Great Britain must be declared. They fear that Northern Ireland, as part of the United Kingdom, will become increasingly disconnected and disadvantaged, making a future unified Ireland increasingly conceivable.

The latter is Johnson's work. He demanded the controversial customs border in the Irish Sea as part of the Brexit deal. 

Given the political crisis in Northern Ireland, it could prove to be a colossal mistake that, in the worst-case scenario, could affect the whole of the United Kingdom and not only return the sad memories of the conflict's early stages but deliver a degree of political violence and chaos for which the nation is ill-equipped in its current position.

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