Editor's note: Thomas O. Falk is a London-based political analyst and commentator. He holds a Master of Arts in international relations from the University of Birmingham and specializes in U.S. affairs. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

In February, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that Britain would return to normal“cautiously but irreversibly.”

It seemed the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic was over, thanks to a dramatic turnaround. After Britain initially failed to get the virus under control, with the result of facing the highest mortality rate in Europe, the nation quickly became one of the globe's leading authorities in vaccinations. Almost 70 percent of adults have received their first jab, while nearly 40 percent have had both – a rate the European Union is looking at enviously.  

The political upswing that Johnson and his party achieved recently even led to great successes in council elections.

The success of the vaccination enabled the government to stick to its roadmap, which specifies the easing of restriction in stages, and - ideally – was to reach its final stage, i.e. the lifting of all legal limits on social contact, on June 21. 

So far, the theory. And in practice, too, for a long time, it looked as if trust in the government would pay off. All previous phases of easing were ushered in successfully and precisely according to plan. For example, restaurants and cinemas were reopened in England on Monday, as scheduled. 

However, the Cinderella story is now in jeopardy, the reason being local outbreaks of a mutant. More specifically, the B.1.617.2 variant.

The latter had led to a drastic wave of infections and mortality in India, which left the country on the verge of collapse and a crisis it currently attempts to tackle with international support.  

According to initial studies, B.1.617.2.could be up to 50 percent more transmissible than the British mutant B.1.1.7 that has so far predominated in Britain.

By Monday, 2,323 cases have been confirmed across the UK. What does not sound significant means the infections have almost doubled for the second week in a row.

At this rate, the B.1.617.2 variant would become the primary in the UK, and infections would once again rise - a dominant concern of the UK government as the country's return to some form of normalcy would end. 

A first indication of how severe the threat level might be was provided by Germany, which reclassified Britain as a risk area the previous week.

Nevertheless, Johnson seeks to stick to his roadmap. He exposes himself to losing the popularity his most recent crisis management had provided him with if he does not. However, suppose the B.1.617.2 variant was to cause devastation in the UK. In that case, Johnson would once again face accusations of not having dealt with the issue promptly – and rightfully so. 

Because Johnson only decided to tighten the regulations for travelers from India drastically on April 23 - two weeks after India's neighbors Pakistan and Bangladesh were already placed on the red list of virus variant areas, and after the chaos that prevails in India due to the virus, could already be witnessed to the full extent.

As a result, at least 20,000 individuals from India had already entered the country. How many of these were carriers remains a mystery. 

The lack of urgency from Johnson resembles the start of the pandemic in 2020 when Britain waited until it was long too late to close borders. Now, once again, it appears that the government failed to prioritize the protection of its perimeters.

To add insult to injury, the causa India includes a particular caveat. Johnson had initially planned a trip to India to advance plans for a trade deal - one of the administration's pivotal Brexit promises.

Only after much hesitation Johnson finally canceled the trip on April 19. Four days later, stricter guidelines for entry from India finally came into force. The timing, and let's give Johnson the benefit of the doubt, at the very least, makes it appear as if the trade deal was significantly more fundamental to Johnson than the potential health fiasco. 

Yet, the government continues attempting to defend what may be indefensible. British Health Minister Matt Hancock said on Sunday that the opening plan remained in place, as one simply did not know enough about the variant at this point. 

And in addition to the accusation that you reacted too late, one has to ask the government why it currently displays a significant degree of inconsistency in its strategy.  

The government always claimed that it was guided by data and science. However, in the current situation, it is therefore surprising that the roadmap is adhered to without adjustment when the data arguably dictates a delay in opening up the country further. 

What provides a glimmer of hope is that no increased hospital admissions or deaths have been recorded so far in the affected areas. The vaccinations could hence at least protect the public from severe health developments.

But no matter how the course of the variant plays out, the Johnson government is currently gambling away the bonus it gained by repeating its mistakes of the past. 

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