Editor's note: Bradley Blankenship is a Prague-based American journalist, political analyst and freelance reporter. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

As the U.S. continues its COVID-19 vaccine drive, which is hitting a new roadblock as many Americans are hesitant to receive a jab, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced last week that fully vaccinated Americans do not need to wear masks in most situations. But this guidance, however well-intentioned, will probably not have the desired effect of nudging more people into taking vaccines, will only open new opportunities for conflict and could contribute to breakout infections.

To be clear, the new CDC guideline is clearly a maneuver designed to encourage Americans to take the vaccine. President Joe Biden's message on masks carried with it a tone that suggests the U.S. is declaring a premature victory against COVID-19, and anyone who takes the vaccine can go back to how things were before.

Biden tweeted on May 13, "After a year of hard work and so much sacrifice, the rule is now simple: get vaccinated or wear a mask until you do."

The problem here is that the people who are most against vaccines are also against masks, and they're against both on purely ideological grounds. Already, some bad actors on social media are seizing on the new guideline to promote lying about vaccination status. There's simply no appeal to reason here. A lot of these people were probably not using masks to begin with, so loosening CDC guidelines on masks doesn't provide a good incentive in the first place.

But more generally, the new guideline continues a common mistake we've seen the U.S. federal government and many other governments across the world continue to make throughout the pandemic, which is assuming that individuals will act responsibly. How the entire pandemic has played out in the U.S. and these other countries that have deferred safety to the individual is a case in point for how incorrect this is.

As USA Today reported last week, experts across the country already know that the honor system just simply isn't going to work since there's no impunity for lying and no way to verify who has and hasn't been vaccinated. It just opens the door for people to lie without consequence.

"In some ways, this is a really perfect recipe for lots of people to be dishonest about whether they got vaccinated. They can say, well, everyone who really is worried about it has gone out and done it, and my personal risk is low," Michael McCullough, a psychology professor at the University of California, San Diego, told the paper.

It seems that the CDC guidance will just create new avenues for people to clash over mask-wearing or social distancing, which has already been a common occurrence. It will surely create more tension in society, deepen polarization, put more strain on businesses and could ultimately prolong the country's tussle with COVID-19.  

The medical field, in general, tends to err on the side of caution in the face of unknowns, which is what makes the new CDC guideline so strange. Even after a year of hard work and sacrifice, the pandemic is surely not over – not in the U.S. and especially not in other parts of the world like India. As the virus continues to spread, new variants are emerging all the time, some of which have the potential of evading existing vaccines.

It's true that studies show that existing vaccines are quite effective against the current variants of concern. But, as an April article in the Lancet medical journal discusses, the possibility for "vaccine breakout" is highly dependent on background incidence of the disease. According to the article, even at current infection rates, there's about a 60 percent probability of vaccine breakout within 6 months.

It could genuinely be the case that foregoing masks after being vaccinated is safe. Still, with so many unknowns and the obvious possibility of widespread deception over vaccine status, it just doesn't make sense from a policy point of view.

Plus, there are clearly much less dangerous ways to incentivize people to take the vaccine, which some states and local governments are already doing, such as lotteries, free food and drinks, or concert and sporting event tickets. Why not use proof of vaccination as a way to boost the economy somehow?

From a political perspective, Biden might be resisting these kinds of incentives since it could result in lawsuits or attacks from his political opponents. But if addressing vaccine hesitancy and bringing the pandemic is a real priority for Biden, his team had better get more creative. 

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