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2021.07.05 23:22 GMT+8

NBA Finals preview: Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Updated 2021.07.05 23:22 GMT+8
Li Xiang

Giannis Antetokounmpo (#34) of the Milwaukee Bucks defends Devin Booker of the Phoenix Suns in the game at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S., April 19, 2021. /CFP

The Phoenix Suns and the Milwaukee Bucks will meet in Game 1 of the 2021 NBA Finals at Phoenix Suns Arena on Tuesday.

The Suns beat the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers, the regular season MVP Nikola Jokic and his Denver Nuggets, plus the Los Angeles Clippers, who won two series after trailing 2-0, to reach the Finals.

The Bucks, on the other hand, got vengeance on the Miami Heat, knocked out the Brooklyn Nets led by Kevin Durant and James Harden (injured), and eliminated this season's biggest dark horse Atlanta Hawks to make the Finals.

Before the series begins, the biggest question will be how much Giannis Antetokounmpo, two-time NBA MVP and the Bucks' franchise player, has recovered from his hyperextended left knee.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (#34) of the Milwaukee Bucks suffers a hyperextended left knee in Game 4 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S., June 29, 2021. /CFP

It's true that the Bucks claimed two straight wins without Antetokounmpo against the Hawks, but the Hawks lost Trae Young in the first loss and had at most 60 percent of him back in the second loss.

Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer made some bold adjustments in the two games including starting with two big men – Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis – and switching everything on defense. He should think again before making the same decisions in the Finals, because his team will meet Chris Paul and Devin Booker, two of the best off-the-dribble mid-range shooters in today's NBA.

Let's assume Antetokounmpo returns for Game 1 – he understandably does not want to miss his first NBA Finals – and is 80-90 percent healthy. Offensively, he charges the rim so aggressively that even without reliable shooting, either from outside or at the free throw line, he has still averaged 28.2 points per game in this year's playoffs, not to mention 12.7 rebounds and 5.2 assists.

Jae Crowder (#99) of the Miami Heat defends Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 2 of the NBA Eastern Conference semifinals at The Field House in Orlando, Florida, U.S., September 2, 2020. /CFP

He will meet an old friend in the series – Jae Crowder, who kicked him and the Bucks out of last year's postseason as a member of the Miami Heat. Though Crowder did not take care of the Greek Freak alone, his strong, solid lower body shut Antetokounmpo out of the paint, where he felt most comfortable offensively, on many occasions.

The good news for Antetokounmpo is that Crowder, so far in the playoffs, has only knocked down 2.4 threes per game at 36.9 percent clip. It's still a great shooting performance, but not as lethal as what he did in the series for the Heat last year – 4.4 triples at 43.1 percent. Antetokounmpo was the one defending him in that series and Crowder punished him in an unforgettably painful way.

Deandre Ayton (#22) of the Phoenix Suns defends Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks in the game at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix, Arizona, U.S., February 10, 2021. /CFP

The Heat back then also had Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo to run their special defense on Antetokounmpo. The Suns do not have Butler but Mikal Bridges, whose 2.15-meter-long wingspan can also cause some trouble. However, 22-year-old Deandre Ayton will still be the key to clamping down on the Greek Freak.

Ayton is bigger and stronger than Adebayo but does not share Adebayo's defensive experience, especially when he has to choose between protecting the rim and covering penetration. Ayton had some excellent performances against Anthony Davis (injured) and Jokic in the previous rounds, but defending Antetokounmpo will be a new test for him before he further improves his defense.

Jrue Holiday (#21) and Khris Middleton of the Milwaukee Bucks look on in Game 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Miami Heat at Fiserv Forum, May 22, 2021. /CFP

When Antetokounmpo was not on the court, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton and Lopez all played bigger roles and made key contributions to the Bucks' games. Due to Middleton's playstyle, there's not much the Suns could do to limit him. However, Middleton has limited himself this playoffs by failing to find his touch, which has happened many times in the postseason. Lopez had some highlights scoring under the rim, but as long as Ayton stays in the paint, he may not have much space to work.

Holiday may become the biggest problem for the Suns. His size, speed and basketball IQ will make him too much for the 36-year-old Paul to handle. Booker has already been targeted as a defensive weakness in two of the series. It will be difficult for the Suns to find the best balance between defending Holiday and Antetokounmpo. To be fair, Holiday's orchestrating (8.4 assists per game in the playoffs) is more dangerous than his scoring (17.6 points per game).

Devin Booker (#1) of the Phoenix Suns dunks in Game 6 of the NBA Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center in Los Angeles, California, US., June 30, 2021. /CFP

Of course, the Suns will come to the floor causing a lot of trouble for the Bucks as well. How to protect their big men from being punished by Paul and Booker is already a headache. The Bucks, in each of the three series they have won so far, did a terrible job of limiting the opponents' No. 1 scorer.

The Heat, which had no player like this, aside, Durant averaged 35.4 points for the Nets. Young scored 98 points in the three games he was still healthy. In the Finals, the Bucks will face Booker, who has averaged 27 points so far in the postseason and scored a 40-point triple-double against Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Moreover, though Paul only averaged 18.1 points per game, he drained 41 to send the Clippers away in Game 6.

Deandre Ayton (#22) of the Phoenix Suns shoots in Game 6 of the NBA Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center, June 30, 2021. /CFP

The Bucks' concerns are not over. Unlike other big men Lopez faced previously – Adebayo, Blake Griffin or Clint Capela – Ayton has more ways of putting the ball into the basket and he is a better offensive rebounder. His existence on the court will discourage Lopez from moving outside and decrease the Bucks' chances of scoring on fastbreaks, which plays an important role in the team's offense.

The Bucks may need to go small by putting Antetokounmpo at center to switch everything as their last resort. That should offset the Suns' off-the-dribble shooting firepower theoretically, but Paul shredded a similar defensive plan by the Clippers by going 7-8 from downtown in Game 6. He apparently won't let anyone in his way to his first ring.

Chris Paul (#3) of the Phoenix Suns shoots in Game 6 of the NBA Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center, June 30, 2021. /CFP

The bench squads of the two sides will also make interesting topics. The Bucks' backup center Portis is not a solid giant but he's fast enough to follow Dario Saric. However, Portis is an unreliable rim protector and the Suns have Cameron Payne, whose speed and penetration can lead to a massacre in the Bucks' paint.

Of course, if Jeff Teague, Pat Connaughton and Bryn Forbes shoot how they did in Game 6 behind the 3-point line, they can give the Suns a headache off the bench.

LeBron James, who played 10 NBA Finals and won four of them, said that Game 1 is always a probe. The Suns and the Bucks, both of which have missed the Finals for decades, will have a lot to learn from the first game of the series.

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