The curtain came down on the German Bundestag election on Sunday, meaning the country is officially on the threshold of a post-Angela Merkel era.

The results are in: Armin Laschet of Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Olaf Scholz of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) both have realistic chances of succeeding Merkel, despite the need for some complex coalition arithmetic.

With a period of uncertainty due to begin in Germany as coalition talks get underway, where will China-Germany ties head next? Will we see radical change or simply continuity with a new face? With these questions in mind, CGTN spoke to Mao Mingchao, a Chinese scholar, and Christian Mueller, a German scholar.

Merkel's China legacy

Both scholars described Germany's China policy under Merkel as "pragmatic," although they noted two countries had a bumpy time when Merkel began her chancellorship in the early 2000s.

Mao, a fellow at Peking University's Center for German Studies, said Merkel's most important legacy on German-China ties was establishing a dialogue mechanism between the two sides.

Merkel has visited China 12 times, and Mao believes the number would have been higher had it not been for the COVID-19 outbreak.

He added since the two sides founded the China-Germany strategic dialogue mechanism in 2011, heads of the two governments as well as ministers have frequently conducted talks, even covering thorny topics like the rule of law and human rights.

Mao argued the dialogue mechanism will continue to play a positive role in stabilizing bilateral ties, no matter who the new German chancellor is.

"Germany's relatively stable China policy has been framed as a 'pragmatic' approach to bilateral diplomacy as opposed to more 'dogmatic' or 'normative' approaches e.g. by the U.S. who take a stronger stance on addressing human rights in international relations as a condition for commercial relations," Mueller, an associate professor of Modern European and International History at University of Nottingham Ningbo China, said.

He concluded the Merkel administration "has a positive attitude towards China in embracing trade and economic opportunities for import and export as the most important EU partner while not necessarily addressing the concerns in the German public and opposition about the perception of inner-Chinese political developments."

'Pragmatic' approach continues but challenges are likely

Based on the election results, Dr Mueller predicted the most likely government coalition was the SPD with the Green Party and the Free Democratic Party (FDP).

Although the SPD, the potential leading party in the coalition government, is likely to continue Merkel's "pragmatic" approach, the Greens and the FDP are more likely to raise China's domestic policies in bilateral talks, which were not addressed in an ideological way by the Merkel government, according to Mueller.

From Mueller's perspective, smaller coalition partners' attitudes now matter – if they will embrace, contest or modify "pragmatic policy" is key. 

"The SPD (or the Conservatives, if they were to succeed in coalition talks) would also look out for a stable coalition government and thus might sign up to a gradual change in Germany's China policy," Mueller added.

Similarly, Mao suggested there would be a level of uncertainty if the Greens' chancellorship candidate Annalena Baerbock was named as foreign minister – a role traditionally given to the second-largest coalition partner – adding the Green Party is fastidious about ideological issues.

Hence, he predicted for some time after the government formation was completed, Sino-German relations would inevitably encounter minor frictions and Germany may act tough and harshly criticize China on some issues.

However, Mao still believes the next German government's overall path on China policy will not shift much, given the SPD's China-friendly tradition, the importance of bilateral trade and the strategic autonomy Germany seeks.

Calling China-Germany trade ties a bedrock of bilateral relations, Mao, who lived in Germany for a decade, said the Germans treat bilateral ties rationally, especially when related to economic issues.

The Chinese scholar also pointed out that European Union countries are stressing the necessity of "strategic autonomy," which means they seek a balanced position among different camps and they don't want to pick a side.

Mao said Germany wants to keep its "middle path" in foreign policy and will insist on enhancing economic and trade cooperation with China. Even though Germany may criticize China on some issues, the criticism will stay at a rhetorical level rather than real actions, he added.

Sticking to cooperation, dialogue

Cooperation and dialogue will remain the most important path for bilateral ties, Mao stressed when referring to the development of China-Germany relations.

"Of course there certainly exists murmurs and there will always be people who want to stir up trouble or are incited by others to do so. But the most important thing for us is not to question the path of cooperation and to continue dialogue and cooperation with people who can look rationally at Sino-German relations and Sino-European relations," said Mao.

The German scholar said the two countries would need to be flexible and open to make sure that cultural differences, interpretations of policies towards one another, and the rationale behind those policies are clearly addressed and understood.

"The German public struggles to understand China's domestic policies in their complexity, and some of the points of criticism that the Greens and Free Democrats voice relate to this challenge," he added.

Mueller also noted "a more unified EU stance is another layer that is important for Sino-German relations," while Mao said if Germany and France want to coordinate a unified foreign policy or policy towards China, they must be concerned about the prejudice and malice of some EU member countries towards China.

Saying some in the European Union are clamoring for a tougher line on China and some populist movements in the continent, Mao stressed the new German chancellor, whoever he is, must have the ability to manage the conflicts.

"A mature politician has heard plenty about opposition voices and will not be rushed to change their own policies. Minority voices will not form a trend, so I feel relatively cautious but optimistic in this regard."

He added some friendly and pragmatic organizations in Germany participated in by key political figures and business leaders, such as China-Bridge association, can also contribute to developing economic and trade relations, setting strategic diplomatic directions and addressing certain geopolitical issues through lobbying and consulting with the German government.

Both two scholars highlighted the cooperative opportunities in trade, investment and energy.

"Germany is not only a huge import country to China, but is very dependent on Chinese exports to Germany. Investment and business development ties are close and would not benefit from a disruption by Germany moving away from the 'pragmatic' Merkel approach," Mueller noted, adding China is a commercial giant that needs foreign markets to grow.

As China is forging a new development paradigm featuring dual circulation, Mao said apart from China's further opening up, German enterprises in China can also become a new part of China's internal circulation especially after the foreign investment law took effect in China last year.

He added next year will be a key time for the two sides, since China and Germany will celebrate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties.