Editor's note: Li Yun is a researcher at the Institute of Foreign Military Research of the Department of War Research, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) Academy of Military Sciences. The article reflects the author's views and not necessarily those of CGTN.

The crisis in eastern Ukraine, which has lasted since last April, has become tenser. Many believe that eastern Ukraine is on the brink of war. The U.S. government's stance is undoubtedly one of the key factors determining the outcome of the ongoing situation. But now, the U.S. seems to be in a dilemma.

On the one hand, the U.S. and its allies are actively preparing for war against Russia over Ukraine. 

Recently, the U.S. airlifted three batches of weapons and equipment to Ukraine in succession and evacuated some of the staff of its embassy in Ukraine. On January 24, the USS Harry S. Truman CVN-75 aircraft carrier strike group led NATO maritime forces for a large-scale military exercise in the Mediterranean Sea.

Meanwhile, the U.S. media disclosed that the Pentagon's options over the Ukraine crisis include deploying a military force of 8,500 troops in Eastern Europe, which can be increased by five to six times if necessary. It is also considering sending more warships and military aircraft to the region.

Although a war or conflict may cause great damage to the Ukrainians, nevertheless the U.S. makes preparations for its own national interests – that it may have positive political and economic impacts.

First, it will help reverse Biden's declining poll approval rate. A January poll by Harvard CAPS/Harris showed that Biden's approval rating was only 39 percent, down 6 percent from two months ago. A wartime president may win more support than a dozing one.

Second, it is conducive to U.S. economic development and energy exports. Renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine will lead to instability in Europe, and a large amount of capital will flee from Europe to the relatively safe America. At the same time, the energy cooperation between Russia and Europe will be interrupted, and then the American shale oil and gas will become a substitute for Russian oil and gas.

Third, it is conducive to further binding Europe to the U.S. chariot against Russia. Once the war breaks out, "Russia threat theory" will no longer be a propaganda slogan. Europe has to rely more on a powerful U.S. military to maintain its own security. The alliance between the U.S. and Europe will be further strengthened.

On the other hand, the U.S. has also released an easing signal, saying that it would not go to war with Russia over Ukraine.

As early as January 10, during the strategic dialogue between the U.S. and Russia, facing Russia's tough stance on the Ukraine issue, the U.S. threatened Russia with nothing more than harsher economic sanctions. On January 25, Biden said that when the Russia-Ukraine relation intensifies, U.S. troops would not enter Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO would not send combat troops to Ukraine. The U.S. and NATO are warning the Ukrainian government against war risks.

What do all of these events tell? The signals are clear: Even if the U.S. and Russian troops do not directly exchange fire in eastern Ukraine, a proxy war breakout would be a major test for the U.S. international credibility. For the U.S. to maintain its global hegemony, alliance strategy is an important pillar. Maintaining the status quo depends not only on strength, but also on "reputation." History tells us that all proxy wars launched by the U.S. after World War II have ended in failure.

In recent years, the U.S. first betrayed Georgia in 2008 and then Afghanistan in 2021. If it goes on to betray Ukraine in 2022, its international credibility will fall to another low after the Vietnam War.

Moreover, once the war starts, no matter which side wins, the relationship between the U.S. and Russia will be completely broken. The U.S. will have to be in a state of full-scale competition with two major powers at the same time. It is doubtful if the U.S. has such a capability today when its national strength is on the decline.

The fundamental reason why the U.S. is caught in a dilemma is neither to maintain the security and stability of Europe, nor to protect the sovereignty of Ukraine and the livelihood of the people, but only because it wants to maintain its status of global hegemony.

If the U.S. truly cares about the security and stability of its European allies, and the national sovereignty of Ukraine and the interests of its people, its choice may not be so difficult.

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