Editor's note: Nikola Mikovic is a freelance journalist based in Serbia. He covers mostly Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian foreign policies and writes for multiple web magazines. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

A war in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine seems to be inevitable. Thousands of refugees are on their way to the Russian Federation, and armed forces of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and Lugansk People's Republic (LPR) are reportedly waiting for the Ukrainian Army to launch a military offensive – a move that could have tragic consequences for both, Ukraine and its breakaway region.

The authorities in the self-proclaimed Donbas republics have already started mass evacuation of women, children and elderly citizens. More importantly, they have declared full mobilization amid dramatically escalated tensions along the line of contact. Such actions suggest that they are seriously preparing for war, although Ukraine claims that it does not intend to launch a military offensive in the Donbas.

Nominally, both Ukraine and the Donbas region still stick to the Minsk II Agreement – a ceasefire deal signed in the Belarusian capital in 2015 – but in reality the document has been a dead letter for a long time. To this day, however, neither Kyiv nor the Donbas representatives dare to officially abandon the Minsk II Agreement, quite aware that such a move would mean that the war has no alternative.

Western officials, on the other hand, keep claiming that it is a matter of time before Russia launches an invasion of Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden said on February 18 that he is "convinced" that the Russian leader Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, while the American envoy to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe detailed reports that up to 190,000 Russian troops are now along the Ukrainian border.

Even if true, that does not necessarily mean that Moscow is planning to attack its neighbor. The goal of Russia's troop maneuvers near the Ukrainian border is likely to deter Kyiv from attempting to resolve the Donbas conflict by force.

If, however, Western-backed Ukraine eventually decides to launch a major attack against the self-proclaimed Donbass republics, Russia is expected to intervene, although at this point it is highly improbable that the Russian jets will bombard Kyiv, as some Western analysts and politicians speculate.

"If danger arises to the lives of Russians and compatriots living in the DPR and LPR, our country will defend them," said the Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin on February 19.

It is entirely possible that volunteers from Russia, and possibly some private military companies, would go to fight in the Donbas region, at least in the first phase of the conflict. However, given that over the past two months Ukraine got tons of weapons from the United States and other NATO countries, it is rather questionable if the Donbas people's militias and Russian volunteers can repel a potential Ukrainian offensive.

Sooner or later, Moscow may have a tough choice to make: to openly interfere in the Donbas conflict, which undoubtedly means more anti-Russian sanctions from the West, or to turn a blind eye to possible Ukrainian actions in the region, which will jeopardize the very existence of the self-proclaimed Donbas republics.

According to the Russian News Agency TASS, a shell on February 19 exploded in the country's Rostov Region, one kilometer from the border with Ukraine. The very fact that the Russian army did not respond clearly suggests that the Kremlin still hesitates from a direct involvement in the Donbas conflict.

On the other hand, Moscow has begun massive nuclear exercises with a few ballistic missile launches, which could be interpreted as another message to Ukraine and the West that Russia is unlikely to tolerate any Ukrainian attempts to change the status quo on the ground.

That, however, does not mean that Russia will ever use its nuclear missiles against Ukraine, or any Western nation.

The Kremlin's next moves are expected to be rather limited. Despite U.S. officials' alarmist predictions of an "imminent" Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moscow is not showing any signs that it is willing to seize Kyiv, as some Western politicians have been announcing for months. The very fact that the Russian diplomats continue to work in the Ukrainian capital city, indicates that at this point the Kremlin does not consider fighting a war against its neighbor.

It is rather questionable if Ukraine itself is interested in a military scenario. According to the country's leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, what Ukraine wants is peace.

"A peaceful and diplomatic path is the path that we need. We have been doing this for the last eight years. The only thing we want is to return peace to our country", Zelenskyy stressed during the meeting with the U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris on February 19 in Munich.

But what if the road to peace leads through another war? Indeed, neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians seem eager to fight, but tensions in the region have already reached such a high level that it is almost impossible to de-escalate in a short time.

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