An empty street in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, March 5, 2022. /CFP
An empty street in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, March 5, 2022. /CFP
Ukraine's economic output will likely contract by a staggering 45.1 percent this year, the World Bank said on Sunday in a new assessment of the economic impacts of its conflict with Russia.
The forecast by the World Bank was far worse than the 10 percent to 35 percent downturn the IMF projected last month.
Russia will also see an 11.2-percent decline in GDP, the World Bank said. The conflict has resulted in soaring food and energy prices.
The entire region is suffering economic consequences from the conflict, which has reversed the region's recovery from the pandemic, according to the World Bank.
"This is the second major shock to hit the regional economy in two years and comes at a very precarious time for the region, as many economies were still struggling to recover from the pandemic," said Anna Bjerde, World Bank vice president for Europe and Central Asia.
The Washington-based institutions expect emerging and developing countries in the Europe and Central Asia region to contract by 4.1 percent this year, a sharp reversal from the 3-percent growth projected before the conflict and twice as bad as the pandemic-induced recession in 2020.
In a more pessimistic scenario, which reflects an escalation of the conflict, the region's economy would contract by nearly 9 percent – worse than the 2008 global financial crisis – with a 20-percent decline for Russia and a 75-percent collapse for Ukraine, according to the bank.
Even if the region avoids the worst-case scenario, Eastern Europe alone is expected to see its GDP plummet by 30.7 percent rather than grow by 1.4 percent, as projected before the conflict.