Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaks in the House of Commons in London, April 19, 2022. /VCG
Editor's note: Rabi Sankar Bosu is an Indian contributor to Chinese media outlets. He writes about Chinese politics, social and cultural issues, and China-India relations with a special interest in the Belt and Road Initiative. The article reflects the author's views, and not necessarily those of CGTN.
At the invitation of his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson will begin a two-day visit to India on April 21, which will be his maiden visit to the South Asian country since taking office in July 2019. Notably, Johnson's visit to India was cancelled twice in a row in 2021 due to the COVID-19 crisis both in India and Britain.
The visit of the British prime minister is considered very important in the context of ongoing negotiations on the Indo-British Free Trade Agreement (FTA), launched in January 2022 while reviewing the 2030 Roadmap for Indo-British bilateral trade engagement. The Roadmap, which was signed during the virtual summit between both leaders in May 2021, aims to at least double bilateral trade between the two countries by 2030.
Meanwhile, many aspects of world politics are becoming complicated, raucous due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. As such, according to the diplomatic experts, the visit will surely focus on the Russia-Ukraine crisis and geo-strategic situation arising out of the conflict.
After Britain's divorce from the 28-member European Union (EU) on January 31, 2020, the path to free trade with the EU was blocked. Johnson has been under pressure with massive social and economic challenges in post-Brexit Britain. The UK economy, the world's fifth largest, appears to be less open or less global than it was before. According to a BBC report, "Trade with the rest of the world — the 'non-EU' countries — is also down both ways since 2019. UK exports to the rest of the world are down 7 percent, or 12 billion pounds, in January-to-October 2021 versus the same period in 2019. UK imports in the same time periods have fallen a little too by 3 percent to 227 billion pounds."
A young woman takes a loaf of bread from a selection of many on display in a supermarket in Leeds, UK, as the cost of basic food staples including meat, bread, and dairy continue to soar in the country, 5 April, 2022. /VCG
As part of his post-Brexit strategy, Johnson wants to create a new trade equation with countries in the Indo-Pacific region. On March 16, 2021, he called the Indo-Pacific "increasingly the geopolitical center of the world" and sought to ostensibly create a democratic counterweight to China while naming Russia as the top regional threat. He expressed his desire to build "strategic defense, diplomatic and economic partnership" with India.
However, Johnson is now politically cornered in Britain at the moment due to the recent downturn in the UK economy as well as the "partygate" controversy. Breaking his government's own COVID-19 lockdown rules, he joined multiple parties at 10 Downing Street in 2020 and 2021. Ahead of his arrival in India, opposition members and even his own Conservative Party's members of Parliament called on Johnson and his Indian-origin Finance Minister Rishi Sunak to resign. London police have fined both Johnson and Sunak for the "partygate" saga. Accusing Johnson, Labor Party deputy leader Angela Rainer said that the "showman" prime minister had misled the British people at every step.
Therefore, Johnson is now trying to regain his image by boosting the country's economy. To achieve this goal, he is keen to implement a post-Brexit trade agreement with India within the next year, which could boost bilateral trade "by up to 28 billion pounds ($37 billion) annually by 2035," according to Johnson's office. There is no doubt that an India-UK FTA could give the British prime minister some fresh oxygen.
Notably, UK International Trade Secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan visited India last January and held talks with Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal on green trade, the removal of market access barriers and other issues. She urged India tariff reductions on exports of UK-made cars and Scotch whisky to make British goods more competitive in the Indian market.
According to media reports the visit will start from Ahmedabad, the main city of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's state of Gujarat, on April 21 with a meeting with leading businessmen to discuss trade enhancement and people-to-people contacts between the two countries. It is expected that Johnson will announce large-scale investments in important industrial areas of India and Britain in Gujarat with special emphasis on high technology and health infrastructure.
It is expected that during their "in-depth talks," as India broadcaster NDTV said, Johnson will try to include India in the Western sanctions imposed on Russia with an aim to strangle the Russian economy and to join in the chorus of condemnation over Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine. On March 31, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss visited India in order to compel India to shift its stance from Moscow and "to cooperate more closely on trade, defense, energy and food security," according to the BBC. Significantly, at the same time, Truss' Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov visited India in an attempt to strengthen ties with India.
The U.S.-led Western camp has criticized India for not condemning Russia's military actions as "invasion." From the very beginning of the Ukraine crisis, India has stood by its time-tested, trusted military and diplomatic partner Russia. Although India has criticized the deaths in Ukraine, it has not yet enlisted in the Western camp against Russia. Rather, India explicitly said the legitimate security concerns of all countries need to be addressed, hinting at North Atlantic Treaty Organization's push east near the Russian border.
Furthermore, India will demand a reduction in visa fees and more work visas for Indian professionals and students to Britain during bilateral interactions with Johnson. India has been petitioning the UK government for relaxing rules and reducing fees for a long time. However, UK Home Secretary Priti Patel and many senior leaders of the Conservative Party are no longer interested in increasing the number of students and workers from India as well as loosening the visa rules for Indians. The UK government should keep in mind that investment from Indian companies already supports 95,000 jobs across the UK.
As such, if the UK government wants to secure a trade agreement with its biggest post-Brexit trade partner, then Britain must extend a favorable opening hand by cutting visa fees for students and bringing in unskilled and skilled workers from India to meet the labor shortage in post-Brexit Britain.
India would be well-advised to reevaluate its trade negotiations with the former colonial power, Britain, by prioritizing its national interests while sticking firm to its neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, given the due importance of the country's historic defense equipment ties with Russia.
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