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NBA East semifinals preview: Celtics, Heat have advantage
Li Xiang
Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics looks on in Game 4 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Brooklyn Nets at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn borough, New York City, April 25, 2022. /CFP

Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics looks on in Game 4 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Brooklyn Nets at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn borough, New York City, April 25, 2022. /CFP

The NBA Eastern Conference semifinals will begin in Game 1 between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks at TD Garden on Sunday.

Neither team met much resistance in the first round. The Celtics swept the Brooklyn Nets 4-0 while the Bucks knocked out the Chicago Bulls 4-1.

The Celtics have made Kevin Durant play the worst series in his career with historic defense. Now the question is, can they repeat such an incredible performance on Giannis Antetokounmpo?

Giannis Antetokounmpo (#34) of the Milwaukee Bucks shoots in Game 5 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Chicago Bulls at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, April 27, 2022. /CFP

Giannis Antetokounmpo (#34) of the Milwaukee Bucks shoots in Game 5 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Chicago Bulls at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, April 27, 2022. /CFP

On paper, the Celtics have the best defensive resources to contain Antetokounmpo with Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford and Robert Williams III. Instead of trapping the "Greek Freak" in the high post at the risk of leaving open 3-pointers, the Celtics can slow him down before he reaches the rim and shut him down in the paint.

Antetokounmpo showed some skill in making jumpers in the middle range in the regular season, but he didn't execute that well in the first-round series against the Bulls. Moreover, compared with other master playmakers like Nikola Jokic or LeBron James, Antetokounmpo needs longer time to get ready to shoot or pass to open teammates once he is held from charging the rim with speed. That will give the Celtics enough time to decide their defensive move on him.

Jrue Holiday (#21) of the Milwaukee Bucks shoots in Game 5 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Chicago Bulls at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, April 27, 2022. /CFP

Jrue Holiday (#21) of the Milwaukee Bucks shoots in Game 5 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Chicago Bulls at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, April 27, 2022. /CFP

The Bucks' best solution for this should be to have their second or third playmaker launch screen play with Antetokounmpo so he can distract the opponents' best defensive attention by rolling toward the paint while leaving the ball-handler in advantage of mismatch. Khris Middleton was the Bucks' best choice for this, but, unfortunately, he is unlikely to appear in this series because of a medial collateral ligament (MCL) sprain.

Jrue Holiday maybe a better ball-handler, but he doesn't share Middleton's shooting ability in the middle- and long-range. Holiday may be able to bully most perimeter players in the league with his strong body, but both Smart and Jaylen Brown can match him in size and power.

Coach Mike Budenholzer began to use the huge squad that included Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis in the series against the Bulls since Middleton was ruled out due to injury. The Bucks exploited well the size advantage of that lineup. Considering that the Celtics' tallest player is 2.06-meter Horford, the Bucks may enjoy some advantage in rebounding.

Jaylen Brown (#7) of the Boston Celtics dunks in Game 4 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Brooklyn Nets at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn borough, New york City, New York, April 25, 2022. /CFP

Jaylen Brown (#7) of the Boston Celtics dunks in Game 4 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Brooklyn Nets at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn borough, New york City, New York, April 25, 2022. /CFP

However, the Bucks will have to make a hard decision over Lopez's time on the court. Tatum drained 13 triples at a field goal (FG) rate of 41.9 percent in four games against the Nets in the first round. He will target on Lopez' inability to switch outside for sure. If Lopez cannot make up for his defensive loss by making enough 3-pointers, he is likely to become a liability for the Bucks.

Unlike the Nets, the Bucks are able to assemble a balanced squad between offense and defense against the Celtics, not to mention that their two big men, Lopez and Portis, can both stretch the spacing for Antetokounmpo. That will pose the biggest defensive challenge to the Celtics: how do they rotate to both contain Antetokounmpo and allow the fewest open 3-pointers?

James Harden of the Phialdelphia 76ers looks on in Game 6 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Toronto Raptors at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada, April 28, 2022. /CFP

James Harden of the Phialdelphia 76ers looks on in Game 6 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Toronto Raptors at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada, April 28, 2022. /CFP

Can Harden hold the 76ers together until Embiid returns?

The Miami Heat will play against the Philadelphia 76ers in the other East semifinals from Game 1 at FTX Arena on May 2.

76ers ace Joel Embiid suffered an orbital fracture and a concussion in Game 6 against the Toronto Raptors on Thursday. The good news is he won't need surgery this time. The bad news is he will be out for at least five days and miss Game 1 of the series against the Heat as a result. There is no timetable for Embiid's return at the moment.

Jimmy Butler (#22) of the Miami Heat penetrates in Game 4 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, April 24, 2022. /CFP

Jimmy Butler (#22) of the Miami Heat penetrates in Game 4 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, April 24, 2022. /CFP

That leaves most of the burden to run the 76ers' offense to James Harden. He scored a double-double of 22 points and 15 assists in Thursday's game, showing the best aggressiveness of that series. The question is, can Harden continue such a performance against the Heat?

The Heat don't share the size advantage and depth in the forwards positions, but Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, P. J. Tucker and Bam Adebayo are all great defenders especially in switching. They may not be able to free Harden in isolation possessions, but neither do they need too much extra help to contain Harden, who seems to have lost too much of his explosiveness.

Bam Adebayo (#13) of the Miami Heat competes for a rebound in Game 4 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, April 24, 2022. /CFP

Bam Adebayo (#13) of the Miami Heat competes for a rebound in Game 4 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, April 24, 2022. /CFP

The absence of Embiid will hurt the 76ers a lot on the defensive front. Coach Doc Rivers may have to put DeAndre Jordan, who was abandoned in the final stage of the regular season and the first-round playoffs, back into the lineup against the Heat. However, even by doing so, can Rivers count on Jordan, Georges Niang and Paul Reed to not make a defensive mess facing Adebayo? Adebayo is not a productive scorer, but he is good at beating slow or undersized big men.

One thing may keep this series from becoming a one-sided matchup will be the perimeter defense of the 76ers. Both Danny Green and Matisse Thybulle can take over Butler and Lowry. Harden is not a good defender, but he is strong enough to match Butler' offensive style. The Heat don't have first-class spacing anymore since they thew Duncan Robinson to the bench and cut his minutes in the game dramatically.

Tyrese Maxey (#0) of the Philadelphia 76ers shoots in Game 6 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Toronto Raptors at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada, April 28, 2022. /CFP

Tyrese Maxey (#0) of the Philadelphia 76ers shoots in Game 6 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Toronto Raptors at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada, April 28, 2022. /CFP

Tyrese Maxey and Tyler Herro will be the X factors for the 76ers and Heat respectively in the East semifinals. The better Maxey does in transition offense and attacking from the weak side, the bigger burden he can share from Harden. As for Herro, all of the 76ers' best defensive resources are in the starting lineup and invested in Lowry, Butler and Adebayo. Herro has explosive scoring ability and if he can exploit it well, he and his bench teammates will make key contributions for the Heat to win.

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