Download
Biden's unpopularity, recession worries cast a shadow on Democrats' midterm prospects
North America;United States
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks on Earth Day at Seward Park in Seattle, Washington, U.S., on April 22, 2022. /CFP

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks on Earth Day at Seward Park in Seattle, Washington, U.S., on April 22, 2022. /CFP

Editor's note: Abhishek G Bhaya is a senior journalist and international affairs commentator. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Joe Biden was never in the race of being among the most popular presidents of the United States. However, the pace at which his approval ratings are tanking squarely puts him on track to feature in the list of the least popular ones, causing a bit of a flutter in the Democratic camp ahead of the November midterm elections.

According to FiveThirtyEight, an American website focussed on opinion poll analysis, Biden's current 40.5 percent approval rating – based on his average standing in all polls – is the worst among all the 13 presidents during the polling era, around the 500-day mark into their first terms. Biden, having taken charge on January 20, 2021, will complete 500 days in office on June 3.

Biden's unpopularity has touched such a low that nearly two-thirds of the voters of a recent Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey questioned the president's ability to be at the helm. While 62 percent respondents felt Biden, who will turn 80 this November, is too old to hold the high office of president, 53 percent expressed doubts over his mental fitness for the job.

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

The survey released last week put Biden's overall approval rating at 41 percent with the issue-wise break down painting an even bleaker picture. 

Voters rated Biden poorly on virtually every issue – from his handling of the economy, controlling inflation, and failure in stimulating jobs to fighting terrorism, tackling immigration, dealing with violence and crime, managing foreign affairs, and overall administration of the government.

The U.S. President's handling of economy was approved by 35 percent of the voters, and only 33 percent backed his efforts in controlling inflation. Biden's push for stimulating job growth could only convince 44 percent voters.

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

Only 40 percent of the respondents supported the president's foreign policies while 38 percent were satisfied with how he tackled immigration; and 41 percent approved of how he was leading the government. Biden's efforts in fighting terrorism found support from 41 percent, that went down to 38 percent when it came to dealing with violence and crime in the country.

Biden's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic was the only exception, receiving a positive approval rating of 52 percent. This is also ironic considering the fact that the coronavirus death toll in the country topped 1 million earlier this month – giving the U.S. the dubious distinction of having the highest COVID-19 death rate among the large wealthy countries.

Mood of the country: U.S. on the wrong track

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

The survey also revealed that the "mood of the country" remained rather gloomy under Biden's presidency. Perceptions of the country are volatile and bleak, with a whopping 63 percent of the respondents saying the U.S., in general, is moving on the "wrong track." Only 29 percent believe that the country is in the "right track," and 8 percent were unsure.

Voters held similar negative views on the direction of the U.S. economy, with 68 percent – the highest on record for the poll – saying it is on the "wrong track" against 25 percent "right track" and 7 percent unsure.

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

Sixty-six percent of the respondents believed that the U.S. economy is weak today compared to 34 percent who still felt that the American economy is strong. This is a dramatic shift in perception from last May when 56 percent felt that the U.S. economy is strong and even a bigger drop from an all-time high of 75 percent in December 2019, under the Donald Trump administration.

The negative perception on the economic front is reflected further in the survey, with 56 percent voters admitting their financial situation is worsening amid rising inflation and mounting fears of a looming economic recession. This figure too is the highest percentage on record for the poll and a sharp increase from last month's 48 percent who reported a weakening of their financial situation. Only 20 percent of voters claimed that their financial situation is improving, an all-time low in the poll.

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

The survey found voters were alarmed about a looming recession. Nearly half of the respondents — 49 percent — expected the U.S. to enter a recession within a year, while 36 percent felt that the country is already in the midst of an economic downturn. A paltry 16 percent were of the view that the U.S. will avoid a recession.

No wonder, 41 percent expressed pessimism about their lives in the next year while 21 percent felt neutral or "about the same." Only 38 percent showed optimism about their lives in general.

Irony: Biden wins approval for COVID-19 efforts

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about his Covid-19 relief plan, in Washington, DC, U.S., February 12, 2021. /CFP

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about his Covid-19 relief plan, in Washington, DC, U.S., February 12, 2021. /CFP

Biden's 52 percent approval on handling COVID-19 – the only bright spot in the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey – reeks of irony in the face of the colossal failure of the U.S. administration in keeping the mortality rates in check.

A recent study, published by medical journal Lancet, also underscored that the U.S. was disproportionately affected by COVID-19 with a mortality rate several times that of other affluent societies. With only 4 percent of the world's population, the cumulative mortality attributable to COVID-19 in the U.S. through early 2021 is 15 percent of that of the global total, it found.

This disproportionate U.S. toll is magnified when compared to other affluent countries and even more so if the comparison is made before the rollout of widespread vaccination. "If the U.S. had the per capita COVID-19 mortality through February 2021 of Canada or Germany, there would have been 200,000 fewer deaths. If the U.S. had Australia or Japan's death rate, 400,000 lives would have been saved," the study noted.

While COVID-19 featured prominently in Biden's election campaign and he made fighting the virus a priority ever since the start of his presidency, a bill to get more funds for tackling the pandemic is struggling to get past the finish line in Congress.

The Republicans have already overwhelmed the Democrats in bringing down the COVID-19-aid funding request of $30 billion to $10 billion and efforts to hold a vote on the legislation in the Senate are stuck amid the Republicans' demand for a vote on an immigration-related amendment. White House officials have pushed for additional funding of at least $20 billion in COVID-19 aid without much success.

Meanwhile, officials have warned that the delay in funding may put the U.S. at risk of running out of critical supplies like vaccines and therapeutics.

Impact on U.S. midterm elections

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

Biden's rapidly declining presidential approval ratings combined with the fears of an impending economic recession and a deeply unsettling financial anxiety in the American people do not augur well for the midterm election prospects of Democrats, who will be looking to save their ultra-thin majorities in the House and Senate.

Democratic Party approval is crawling in the low 40 percent range, with the latest figures for May at 42 percent. In comparison, Republican, or the Grand Old Party (GOP), is just marginally ahead with a 47 percent approval.

The survey also puts Republicans ahead of Democrats in electoral votes by two percentage points. Fifty-one percent respondents said they would vote for the Republican Party compared to 49 percent for Democrats if the congressional election were held today.

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

/Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll

It is not certain when do voters reach a final decision on their electoral pick before an election, but presidential approval ratings are still viewed as a key factor in determining the results of a midterm poll.

While Biden's growing unpopularity might be difficult to overcome for the Democrats, their only hope lies in targeting an improvement in the economy and the pandemic situation – two of the major concerns for the electorate. A check on inflation with moderating prices and a decline in COVID-19 surges may be just what they may need to turn around their gloomy prospects.

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com. Follow @thouse_opinions on Twitter to discover the latest commentaries on CGTN Opinion section.)

Search Trends