Stephen Curry (#30) of the Golden State Warriors dribbles in Game 3 of the NBA Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, May 22, 2022. /CFP
2022 NBA Finals will begin with the game between the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics at Chase Center in San Francisco on Thursday.
The two teams have met four times in the postseason in history and the Celtics won on all those occasions, but those series happened in the 1950s and 1960s as part of the long-term rivalry between Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell.
Neither the Warriors nor Celtics had the fastest pace in the regular season, but speed played an important role in their offense. On the Celtics side, coach Ime Udoka requested his players to deal with the ball quickly, partly to make it up for the team's lack of a traditional orchestrator. As for the Warriors, coach Steve Kerr has been trying to get everyone involved in the team's offense via making an extra pass and fast off-ball movement.
Ime Udoka (C), head coach of the Boston Celtics, stand in between his players Jayson Tatum (L) and Jaylen Brown in Game 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat at FTX Arena in Miami, Florida, May 17, 2022. /CFP
Both teams can launch storming attacks and win most games when their passes reach the right people. However, when the opponents are able to deflect their ball movement, the Warriors and Celtics are looking at massive turnovers and following fast break by the opponent as a result. In fact, that's how they lost to the Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat respectively on their way to the finals.
The Celtics are able to launch attack in a simpler way to avoid turnovers by sending a five-out offensive scheme made of Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Grant Williams and Al Horford. Theoretically, each player of this squad can shoot from downtown to stretch the spacing and at least won't become a defensive weak link. The team's containing of Giannis Antetokounmpo in the East semifinals was very impressive.
Draymond Green (#23) of the Golden State Warriors celebrates with his teammate Andrew Wiggins in Game 3 of the NBA Western Conference semifinals against the Memphis Grizzlies at Chase Center in San Francisco, California, May 7, 2022. /CFP
However, unlike the Milwaukee Bucks, the Warriors don't rely on the destructive penetration of one single player for playmaking. The strong lower bodies of Grant Williams and Horford worked well in slowing Antetokounmpo down, but are they able to chase much smaller and faster Stephen Curry in ubiquitous off-ball movement, not to mention the various screens other Warriors will set for him on the way?
That's why Daniel Theis, who was almost abandoned in the series against the Heat, may get an opportunity during the Finals. He is more agile than Grant Williams and Horford. The Celtics don't have to worry about him being smashed by any of the Warriors' big men. Besides, judging by the struggling performance of starting center Robert Williams III in the final two games against the Heat, his knee injury was holding him back much more than the team expected.
Marcus Smart (#36) of the Boston Celtics celebrates with his teammate Al Horford in Game 2 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat at FTX Arena in Miami, Florida, May 19, 2022. /CFP
Of course, it will be also challenging for the Warriors to defend the Celtics. Curry's improvement in defense this season is remarkable, but that won't discourage the opponent from attacking him. The Celtics have Tatum, Brown, Smart and even Horford to do so in mismatch. They don't need to score in every possession when Curry guards any of them. Fatiguing Curry is good enough and it's even better if they can throw him into foul trouble.
Curry won't be the only Warriors targeted on the defensive front. Jordan Poole, who began shouldering more offensive duties this season, is defensive weakness of the team. Coach Kerr will also have to rack his brain to figure out who Draymond Green should guard. As the most important help defense provider of the franchise, Green cannot afford to be fixated on one 3-point shooter. Having him guard Smart who shot at 28.3 percent behind the arc during the East Finals might be an acceptable choice.
Grant Williams (#12) of the Boston Celtics defends Jordan Poole (#3) of the Golden State Warriors in the game at Chase Center in San Francisco, California, March 16, 2022. /CFP
Kerr revealed that three injured Warriors, Gary Payton II, Andre Iguodala and Otto Porter Jr., will recover and return in the Finals. Payton II and Iguodala should be able to guard the opponent's star duo, Tatum and Brown, together with Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins. Porter Jr. may not be fast enough to match Brown or Tatum, but he is the team's only big man with 3-point shooting ability. Therefore, Porter Jr. can play a key role in defending the Celtics' five-out offensive scheme.
Generally speaking, the Warriors will have more ways to score and their ability to switch among different defensive patterns can catch the Celtics off guard in one of two games. If they can make Tatum and Brown hesitate and hold the ball longer, they are half way paralyzing the opponent's offense.
Therefore, what the Celtics should do is to be determined and make decision fast. Their squad is more athletic and has better spacing. The team has drained 20+ triples in multiple games in the playoffs. It's hard to beat them when they shoot like this.