World
2022.06.03 22:05 GMT+8

Seven ways the Ukraine-Russia conflict has changed the world

Updated 2022.06.03 22:05 GMT+8
CGTN

The global order has undergone seismic changes since Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine began on February 24, with the consequences likely to play out for decades into the future.

Here are seven of the most significant ways in which the Russia-Ukraine conflict has changed the world.

CFP

1. Food insecurity

Global food prices are almost 30 percent higher now than a year ago, according to the UN, and a brewing food crisis – particularly in Africa and the Middle East – driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change has been accelerated by the conflict in Ukraine.

According to the World Food Program (WFP), Ukraine provides food for 400 million people with 36 countries importing more than 50 percent of their grain from the region, but exports from the country’s ports have been curtailed during the conflict.

"When war is waged, people go hungry," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned in mid-May. David Beasley, WFP executive director, added that unless exports of Ukrainian agricultural goods resume, "famines, destabilization and mass migration around the world" will follow.

Guterres has said food insecurity in poorer nations is worsening, and some countries could face long-term famines if Ukraine's exports are not restored to pre-war levels.

2. Alternative energy

The climate change battle is a global priority, but the move away to alternative forms of energy hasn't been neither swift nor smooth across Europe.

The plan to take Russian fossil fuels out of the European Union energy mix by 2030 – it supplied about 40 percent of the bloc's gas, half its coal and 27 percent of its imported oil in 2019 – has led to accelerated plans to develop renewable energy infrastructure.

The EU has announced a 210 billion euro (about $220 billion) REPowerEU plan to shift away from Russian energy within five years and transition to green alternatives, as well as find new suppliers of liquefied natural gas.

High-profile projects like Germany's Nord Stream 2 have been ditched, and countries including Britain, Italy and the Netherlands are accelerating plans to increase wind power and diversify their energy mix. While the consequences are far from clear cut, Europe is quickening its transition to sustainable energy sources. 

3. Cost of living

One of the consequences of the sudden shift away from Russian energy which many European countries had become dependent on – and indeed the sanctions placed on Moscow – is rising prices for consumers, particularly in Europe, and potentially insufficient supply when winter comes.

Alongside rising inflation, which is hitting the poorest hardest, there are increasing worries that a period of stagflation lies ahead for Western economies and significant pain for the people living there.

That could mean continued higher prices on everyday essentials and lower employment, exacerbating a cost of living crisis already engulfing many European countries.

4. Spend, spend, spend

A major trend emerging from the conflict is likely to be an increase in defense spending. World military expenditure surpassed $2 trillion for the first time in 2021, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and several countries have pledged further increases in the year ahead in the wake of the conflict in Ukraine.

Germany has said it will provide weapons to Ukraine, inject around 100 billion euros (about $110 billion) into its own military and increase defense spending to beyond the NATO required level of 2 percent of GDP, a huge turnaround for a country that has repeatedly been criticized for not spending more on defense by other alliance members.

According to Jefferies, if all NATO members meet the 2 percent target, their combined defense budgets (excluding the U.S.) will go up by 25 percent to a total of around $400 billion a year. The bank also estimates that defense procurement among those member states could rise by 40 to 50 percent in the coming years. 

All in all the conflict has been good for arms manufacturers – their stock prices have spiked this year, though to-date the huge supply of weapons from Western countries to Ukraine has not translated into a flood of new orders, with the arms generally coming from existing inventories. 

5. Russia's economy

The West has sought to cut Russia off from the global financial, trading and tech markets – effectively launching an economic war on Moscow with wave after wave of sanctions. 

The country's trade balance is healthy as a result of higher prices for oil and gas exports – driven in part by the sanctions imposed by the West – and though the International Monetary Fund forecasts the Russian economy will shrink by 8.5 percent this year, so far it has held up better than many experts expected.

In April there was some evidence that the sanctions were starting to bite, however, as the economy contracted 3 percent from a year earlier, while both industrial production and retail sales dropped. 

While Russia has allies and its economy has so far held up, the Western attempts to "deglobalize" the country are likely to intensify as long as the conflict continues. A major change within Russia is an exodus of global consumer brands, while several international bodies have cut ties with Russian sports teams and stars. 

6. Refugee crisis

The United Nations estimates that 6.8 million Ukrainians have left their country since February 24, and a further 7.7 million have been internally displaced.

The exodus has put huge additional pressures on the countries receiving the refugees. Around 3.6 million have fled to neighboring Poland, with nearly one million heading to Romania and 750,000 to Germany. Around a million have left the Donbas region for Russia.

The exodus has been met by a unified response in the EU and proven much less contentious than other refugee crises over the past decade – a difference that has been noted in other conflict-riven countries whose people haven't received such a warm welcome. 

Japan, unusually, has also accepted hundreds of refugees from Ukraine. The UK and U.S. have been less effective in living up to initial promises, however.

7. An alliance renewed 

A Western alliance that had been riven by division and complacency in recent years has been revitalized by the conflict in Ukraine, and indeed the Western bloc has been expanded – for now, at least.

Traditionally neutral countries like Switzerland have joined the EU sanctions on Russia, while  Singapore has also imposed sanctions. And both Finland and Sweden are bidding to join NATO, giving up long-held neutral status if their attempts are successful.

One of the most remarkable changes has been within the EU, which has been transformed into a functioning geopolitical entity. It hasn't all been smooth, but the unity, speed and decisiveness with which the 27-member bloc has acted has been a surprise. The test will now be to see if that unity can be maintained, but it could lead to some fundamental changes in the way the bloc sees itself and acts in the longer term.

But while there has been surprising togetherness, the United States and its allies have also been driven to alter their foreign policy focus. Biden has attempted to restart the "Asia Pacific" focus started under the Obama administration, and European allies are accelerating their own tilts to Asia. The situation in Ukraine is forcing a reallocation of resources and focus, however, that could hamper those attempts.

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