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2021-22 NBA review: Should Miami Heat continue their risky betting?
Li Xiang
Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat looks on after the 100-96 loss in Game 7 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at FTX Arena in Miami, Florida, May 29, 2022. /CFP

Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat looks on after the 100-96 loss in Game 7 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at FTX Arena in Miami, Florida, May 29, 2022. /CFP

The Miami Heat finished their 2021-22 season after losing to the Boston Celtics 4-3 in the NBA Eastern Conference Finals. Though they only lost on the last-minute 3-pointer by Jimmy Butler, it's hardly a satisfactory result for the Heat after their heavy investments during the offseason in 2021.

Before the season began, the Heat signed a four-year, $184 million extension with their ace Jimmy Butler. They also gave 3-point shooter Duncan Robinson a five-year, $90 million contract, the biggest ever for any undrafted player in league history. Moreover, the team acquired two veterans, P.J. Tucker on a two-year, $14.4 million deal and Kyle Lowry via sign-and-trade for three years valued at $85 million.

Having surpassed almost every team in offseason investments, the Heat finished the 2021-22 regular season as the East leader with a 53-29 record. Butler missed 25 of those games partly due to multiple injuries. Robinson dropped in 3-point rate, production and average points compared with the previous season. However, Lowry and Tucker made relatively consistent contributions to the team on both offense and defense.

P.J. Tucker (#17) of the Miami Heat shoots in Game 7 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at FTX Arena in Miami, Florida, May 29, 2022. /CFP

P.J. Tucker (#17) of the Miami Heat shoots in Game 7 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at FTX Arena in Miami, Florida, May 29, 2022. /CFP

The Heat went through some major changes in rotation as the postseason began. Robinson was basically abandoned since he couldn't make 3-pointers and remained a huge defensive liability. Lowry was held back by aging and injuries. He only appeared in 10 of the team's 18 playoff games and underperformed in over half of them. Tucker remained a solid defender, but he was very limited in what he could do on the offensive end.

As a result, Butler, who was not 100-percent healthy, had to shoulder more and more offensive duties for the Heat as the postseason went on. Having averaged as much as 37 minutes in 17 games, he scored 27.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 2.1 steals per game. He could barely leap high in the last two games of the East Finals but still got 82 points.

Though they didn't reach the finals, it's very impressive for the Heat to go so far counting on a group of injured veterans and undrafted players like Gabe Vincent and Max Strus.

Kyle Lowry (C) of the Maimi Heat passes in Game 7 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at FTX Arena in Miami, Florida, May 29, 2022. /CFP

Kyle Lowry (C) of the Maimi Heat passes in Game 7 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at FTX Arena in Miami, Florida, May 29, 2022. /CFP

Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, who are at their best age, failed to provide support to Butler in the playoffs. Adebayo's stats dropped a lot in the postseason. He couldn't shoot 3-pointers and could not score efficiently and consistently via isolation unless there was a huge mismatch advantage for him to exploit. Neither was Adebayo to be trusted guarding destructive big men like Joel Embiid. Having played five seasons in the NBA, he was stuck in growth on both ends.

Herro's slump in the playoffs was more troublesome than Adebayo's. As the Sixth Man of the Year this season, Herro averaged 20.7 points and 2.7 triples at 39.9 percent during the regular season. However, he somehow lost his shooting target in the playoffs and could only score 12.6 points and 1.1 triples at 22.9 percent. When Herro could score, he became a weak defensive link just like Robinson and thus saw his time drop sharply in the postseason.

Herro is eligible to negotiate a rookie extension with the Heat this summer, and he could sign a deal as big as five years at $186 million that would begin to take effect from the 2023 -24 season. However, the team is unlikely to give him such a lucrative contract, judging by his playoff performance in the past two seasons. But even if they can convince him to accept a smaller extension, the Heat are looking at a painfully big payroll.

Bam Adebayo (#13) of the Miami Heat penetrates in Game 7 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at FTX Arena in Miami, Florida, May 29, 2022. /CFP

Bam Adebayo (#13) of the Miami Heat penetrates in Game 7 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at FTX Arena in Miami, Florida, May 29, 2022. /CFP

The Heat's total active salary for players is $133.4 million for the 2022-23 season, including Tucker's player option of $7.35 million and a non-guaranteed $3.6 million for Strus and Vincent combined. All three performed surprisingly well during the playoffs, so the team has no reason to let them go.

However, the total cap of $133.4 million means the Heat won't have much space to enhance their squad if they keep the major roster. Judging by their performance during the 2022 playoffs, the team lacks the second playmaker who can share the burden with Butler. They have to choose a pivot between offense and defense instead of assembling a balanced squad. However, as the spine of the team, Butler, Lowry and Tucker are either old, vulnerable to injuries or both, and it will be surprising if any of them suddenly slips someday.

Nonetheless, when Pat Riley, president of the Heat, gave Butler that lucrative extension and landed Lowry via the expensive sign-and-trade deal, he was already betting everything on this imperfect franchise. His resume as a basketball executive is filled with high-risk moves ranging from signing Alonzo Mourning on a seven-year, $105 million contract in 1996 and assembling the "Big Three" of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in 2010. It took more than a lost Conference Finals to make him give up.

Tyler Herro of the Miami Heat looks on in Game 7 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at FTX Arena in Miami, Florida, May 29, 2022. /CFP

Tyler Herro of the Miami Heat looks on in Game 7 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals against the Boston Celtics at FTX Arena in Miami, Florida, May 29, 2022. /CFP

The Heat will be able to keep their excellent bench depth for the 2022-23 season, thanks to the rise of Strus and Vincent. If Herro and Robinson find their 3-point shooting back, the team will grow even better offensively. Despite his problems, Adebayo is only 24 years old and can improve his offensive skills. Butler, Lowry and Tucker all have about five months to rest and recover. The Heat are still a top team in the East despite failing this season. They have good reason to continue believing in themselves and, honestly, no other choice.

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