U.S. recession risk rises to 38%: Bloomberg Economics

The risk of the U.S. going into recession in the next 12 months has reached 38 percent, according to the newest prediction by Bloomberg Economics.

From Wall Street to Washington, the domestic voice of the U.S. going into recession is getting louder. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has begun to say the central bank is willing to tolerate a recession if it means getting inflation under control, according to a report by Politico. "The bigger mistake to make would be to fail to restore price stability," Powell said.

According to Bloomberg Economics, the rise in recession risk is largely attributed to two factors: significant deterioration in consumer sentiment and a moderation in the corporate profit outlook.

The risk of a self-fulfilling recession is higher than before, and can happen as soon as early next year, according to Anna Wong, chief U.S. economist at Bloomberg Economics.

She said even though household and business balance sheets are strong, worries about the future could cause consumers to pull back, which in turn would lead businesses to hire and invest less.

(Photo: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on June 14, 2022 in New York City. /CFP)

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