Editor's note: Stephen Ndegwa is a Nairobi-based communication expert, a lecturer-scholar at the United States International University-Africa, and an author and international affairs columnist. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

In his most clear indication yet of his 2024 intention to vie for the country's presidency again in 2024, after losing to the incumbent Joe Biden on the November 3, 2020 elections, former U.S. President Donald Trump recently told the "New York Magazine" that his announcement was now a matter of when, not if.

"I would say my big decision will be whether I go before or after," said Trump, seemingly referring to the forthcoming midterm elections in November. For the avoidance of doubt, he tossed his hat in the ring by indicating unequivocally that his vying was no longer a matter of conjecture.

Of course, notwithstanding his selfishness, Trump currently enjoys the suspense he is causing within his Republican Party, the GOP - which he seems to have pushed to a corner - the larger U.S. citizenry, and his political adversaries. One of the most powerful constituencies of the latter group is the House Select Committee to investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol in 2021.

Analysts see this as a partisan committee dying to charge Trump with "criminal conspiracy" for the riots and, subsequently, lock him out of the race to the White House, may be for good if he is convicted.

From the frying pan into the fire, and back to the frying pan aptly captures the eventuality that awaits the U.S. in November 2024 if Trump is re-elected for a second term. Well, the "more things change, the more they remain the same" captures the current predicament for the U.S. in general. Voting out Trump did not change things for the better. In fact, there is widespread malaise against Biden's presidency as little seems to have changed for the one and half years since he was sworn into office.

Meanwhile, catching up with Trump's act has been walking through a labyrinth. Speaking during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), in Orlando, Florida in February, Trump stated that he was back in active politics, and would stick with the GOP. The unfolding scenario is music to the ears of his diehard supporters, who ran over the U.S. Capitol by his incitement during Biden's Senate confirmation hearings.

In 2024 Trump will be about 78 years old, about the same age as his successor, Joe Biden, when he was elected. But his temperament means that he could be more intransigent and chaotic than during his first term. But Trump cannot be dismissed. The enthusiastic reception that he receives every time he addresses his supporters means that he is still a force to reckon within GOP's top ranks.

Trump's remarks in February made it clear that he has no competitor in the GOP: "With your help, we will take back the House. We will win the Senate. And then a Republican president will make a triumphant return to the White House. And I wonder who that will be."

Knowing Trump, it would be a near impossibility for him to support another candidate. Being a shrewd shepherd, the ex-president perfectly understands his flock's vulnerabilities and exploits them maximally. The first test of Trump's impact will be gauged in the forthcoming midterms. The Republicans winning at least half of these seats would give Trump new impetus for a third presidential run. In fact, his announcement was aimed at gauging whether his charisma is still effective.

Whether Trump's now declared ambition to return to the White House will gain traction with the larger part of America's body politic in the months leading to November 2024 depends on whether Biden can drastically change things within this period. His scorecard, particularly on post-COVID-19 economic recovery and increase in employment, will determine how aggressive his predecessor will behave going forward.

Americans should start analyzing what another Trump presidency portends. The scenarios for such a reality are not flattering, if his first term is anything to go by. He would definitely seek to undo all he dislikes from Biden's term, including a reversal of what Biden re-instated from his – Trump's - executive orders.

The fact that he survived two impeachments, the only U.S. president to successfully undergo such an ordeal, could mean that there is still a place for him in the country's psyche. If he wins in the 2024 polls, it will be a feat that will give him a blank check this time round to stamp the president's executive powers with more force and unilateralism than before.

Much of the rest of the world may not be looking forward to such an eventuality either. Trump caused a lot of anxiety globally by creating enmity where none existed before as he ran roughshod over all and sundry. His belligerence and diplomatic rancour led to the loss of respect for the hitherto world's de facto superpower. No one knows how far low the U.S. will sink, or how far it will veer off course.

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