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U.S. dollar firm as Fed digs in for protracted inflation fight
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Woman holds U.S. dollar banknotes in front of euro banknotes, May 30, 2022. /Reuters

Woman holds U.S. dollar banknotes in front of euro banknotes, May 30, 2022. /Reuters

The U.S. dollar was on the front foot on Thursday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting pointed to interest rates staying higher for longer to bring down inflation.

The greenback gained most against the Antipodeans, especially the Aussie, which was dragged down as weaker-than-expected wage growth weighed on Australia's rates outlook.

The Australian dollar fell 1.2 percent on Wednesday to a one-week low of $0.6912. It hovered just above there at $0.6922 in the Asia session, with little reaction to noisy labor data that showed falls in both employment and the jobless rate.

The greenback rose marginally on the euro and sterling was steady on the yen.

"The bigger picture for the dollar is that it's in a strong uptrend," said Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at brokerage City Index in Brisbane, adding it has now paused a weeks-long pullback.

"In some ways, bulls are looking to step back in and I think the Fed minutes gave them a reason to do so."

Fed officials saw "little evidence" late last month that U.S. inflation pressures were easing, the minutes showed. The minutes flagged an eventual slowdown in the pace of hikes, but not a switch to cuts in 2023 that traders until recently had priced in for interest-rate futures.

"Once a sufficiently restrictive level has been reached, they are going to stick to that level for some time," Rabobank strategist Philip Marey said in a note to clients.

"This clearly stands in contrast to the early Fed pivot that the markets have been pricing in."

Traders see about a 39 percent chance of a third consecutive 75-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, and expect rates to hit a peak of around 3.7 percent by March, and to hover around there until later in 2023.

(Source: Reuters with edits)

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