Editor's note: Sun Yanhong is a senior research fellow at the Institute of European Studies (IES), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), and the secretary-general of the Chinese Society of Italian Studies. The article reflects the author's views and not necessarily those of CGTN.

On September 25, 2022, Italy held parliamentary elections. This was an early election, and it is the first time that Italy held a general election in autumn just after the summer vacation. The election campaign was hasty and failed to resonate much with the people. As a result, the turnout was only 63.91 percent, about 9 percentage points lower than the turnout in the 2018 general elections (72.94 percent).

The results of the elections showed that the center-right coalition won a stable majority in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. The main center-left parties have already admitted their failure. Within the center-right coalition, the far-right party Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia) became the largest winner, gaining about 26 percent of the votes, and the other far-right party the League (Lega, led by Matteo Salvini) got close to 9 percent of the votes, neck-and-neck with Silvio Berlusconi's center-right party Forza Italia (a little over 8 percent of the votes).

Therefore, it's almost certain that the forthcoming Italian government will be run by the center-right coalition which is dominated by far-right parties, especially Brothers of Italy. As the founder and current leader of Brothers of Italy, Giorgia Meloni will likely become the next Italian prime minister and the first female prime minister of the country.

In recent years, the relationship between Italy and the EU has received extensive attention. After the "yellow-green government" formed by the Five Star Movement and the League with a Eurosceptic and anti-European stance came into power in 2018, the relationship between the two fell into a low ebb.

When the "yellow-red government" formed by the Democratic Party and the Five Star Movement came to power in 2019, Italy began to return to the mainstream policy framework of the EU. In 2020, under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the relationship between Italy and the EU experienced a process of change from intensified tensions to improvement.

During Mario Draghi's tenure as prime minister, Italy has fully returned to the mainstream of European policy framework. Given that both the Brothers of Italy and the League have publicly expressed their dissatisfaction with the EU, if the center-right government dominated by the far-right comes into power, the relationship between Italy and the EU may undergo big changes, which will cast a shadow on the prospects of European integration.

Firstly, structural reforms in Italy may stall, which will affect the overall advancement of the "Next Generation EU" recovery plan. As the third-largest economy in the EU and the beneficiary member state that receives the largest share of the EU's recovery fund under the pandemic, Italy's successful implementation of its National Recovery and Resilience Plan is of great significance to the advancement of the "Next Generation EU" plan and the strengthening of the EU's internal cohesion.

Italy's National Recovery and Resilience Plan contains 58 reform projects, the implementation of which is a prerequisite for getting EU funding. Although the Draghi government made a lot of progress in promoting reforms, until the eve of his resignation, reforms in the fields of finance, judiciary and competition law have encountered huge resistance.

It is expected that the willingness and ability of the new government to continue to implement reforms after taking office will be further weakened, which may make it difficult for Italy to implement its reform commitments in the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, thereby dragging down the progress of the "Next Generation EU" plan. It cannot be ruled out that the new Italian government and the EU may have another dispute over the funding issue.

Secondly, Italy's public finance situation may deteriorate again, leading to renewed tensions between Italy and the EU. Although Giorgia Meloni said before the election that her party will respect the EU's fiscal discipline, according to historical experience, the center-right government usually implements policies of reducing taxes and increasing public spending after taking office, which will lead to a continued increase in the fiscal deficit and government debt. If this is the case, it will likely cause the relationship between Italy and the EU to deteriorate again.

At the end of 2021, Italian government debt reached about 2.7 trillion euros, which is as high as 150.4 percent of GDP. In addition, against the backdrop of the European Central Bank's tightening monetary policy, if the new Italian government were to release the signal that it would no longer improve public finances, it could also push up the risk of the EU falling into sovereign debt market turmoil again.

Thirdly, the issue of migrants and refugees could also become a focus of disagreement between Italy and the EU. The Brothers of Italy is a typical far-right nationalist party whose political slogan is "Defend Italy" and Meloni herself has always held a stance against mass immigration. 

The leader of the League, Salvini's tough stance on migrants and refugees was revealed during his tenure as interior minister in the "yellow-green government." At that time, the Italian government had adopted unprecedented strict refugee control measures such as refusing refugee rescue ships to disembark and closing refugee settlements on a large scale. Therefore, when the center-right takes office, Italy could again deviate from the EU mainstream on immigration and refugee policies.

Lastly, the center-right coalition and the EU will also likely have differences in their attitudes towards the Ukraine crisis. Within the center-right coalition, the League and Forza Italia both maintained certain ties and even friendly relations with Russia before the crisis; so they were not very supportive of sending arms to Ukraine during the conflict.

Salvini (the leader of League) has expressed several times that doing so would only prolong the conflict. Meloni, the leader of Brothers of Italy, has no objection to arms shipments to Ukraine, but she has said that Italy should maintain a relative independence in the EU and NATO to safeguard its own national interests.

It should be noted that the anti-Eurosceptic narrative is no longer an effective political weapon in Italy since mid-2020, when it became the largest beneficiary of the Next-Generation EU fund. Since 2021, under the leadership of the Draghi government, Italy has received EU funds relatively smoothly, and its economic growth has been better than that of Germany and France. The center-right coalition is very well aware of this. 

Therefore, despite the above-mentioned differences and potential conflicts, it is expected that the new Italian government, based on practical considerations, will not fundamentally change its position towards the EU.

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