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Truss goes for turning: Tax cuts' reversal sets danger signs
Thomas W. Pauken II
Britain's Prime Minister Liz Truss listens to Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng speaking at Conservative Party conference at ICC in Birmingham, England, Oct. 3, 2022. /CFP
Britain's Prime Minister Liz Truss listens to Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng speaking at Conservative Party conference at ICC in Birmingham, England, Oct. 3, 2022. /CFP

Britain's Prime Minister Liz Truss listens to Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng speaking at Conservative Party conference at ICC in Birmingham, England, Oct. 3, 2022. /CFP

Editor's note: Thomas W. Pauken II is the author of "U.S. vs China: From Trade War to Reciprocal Deal," a consultant on Asia-Pacific affairs and a geopolitical commentator. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

When campaigning for the Conservative Party's leadership role last summer, Liz Truss pledged to introduce bold new economic reforms and sweeping tax cuts if she can become the next prime minister of the United Kingdom.

Her campaign was successful and she assumed power on September 6. The UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng followed up on September 23 by announcing the British government's plans to simplify the tax codes and eliminate the top tier rate tax at 45 percent for the highest income earners.

Apparently, the signal to push forward on tax cuts on the very wealthy had sparked shockwaves in the global markets. The British pound's value, compared to the U.S. dollar, plunged and there were rising fears over the UK incurring much larger public debt loads.

To quell an imminent mutiny among Tory MPs (members of parliament), the Truss government had to backtrack by scrapping her tax cuts' pledge on Monday while the prime minister was attending the annual Conservative Party conference in Birmingham.

For the sake of political expediency and to calm down jitters in the markets, she made the right decision.

Nonetheless, the long-term consequences of her reversing course on one of her major domestic policy objectives could be disastrous for her prospects at No. 10 Downing Street. She has lost some credibility and that's very hard to come back from.

Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng speaks at Conservative Party conference at ICC in Birmingham, England, Oct. 3, 2022. /CFP
Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng speaks at Conservative Party conference at ICC in Birmingham, England, Oct. 3, 2022. /CFP

Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng speaks at Conservative Party conference at ICC in Birmingham, England, Oct. 3, 2022. /CFP

'We get it, we have listened'

Truss changing her public stance on tax cuts was a messy affair. The prime minister was publicly insisting that she would stay the course as recently as last Sunday.

Nonetheless, she started to show some doubts by disclosing that she could have done a better job preparing the financial markets for an unexpected tax-cut plan that would be funded by higher government debt. Meanwhile, she is still supporting most parts of her economic measures.

"We should have laid the ground better," Truss said in an interview with the BBC on Sunday. The main understanding here is that Truss had rushed in on a tax cuts' announcement before winning initial support from the Tory's back-benchers in the British Parliament.

The financial markets also went into turmoil in just a 10-day timeframe after Chancellor Kwarteng announced the "mini-budget." The UK's major pension funds were crashing while the Bank of England had to intervene by propping up the sterling's value, according to media reports.

Additionally, S&P Global issued a downgrade warning on the UK's AA credit rating last Friday. Hence, a financial storm was looming ahead and Truss had to take urgent actions. As reported by the Guardian newspaper, Kwarteng joined Truss and their closest aides in her suite at the Hyatt hotel in Birmingham on Sunday evening.

The mood was grim as they spoke about their discussions with Tory MPs. They agreed to meet again later that evening while a Tory mutiny over the tax cuts' proposal was underway. They both agreed to dump the policy immediately, while the chancellor was assigned to make the announcement publicly.

At 7:30 am the next morning, UK-time, the chancellor tweeted: "We get it, and we have listened." Hence, the proposed tax cuts would be no more.

Political U-turns have consequences

Many members of the British Conservative Party hold fond memories of the late Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher or view her as a good role model for leadership. Thatcher delivered a speech at the Conservative Party Conference in 1980 saying that she was "not for turning."

She was responding to expectations over taking a reversal on counter-inflationary policies. She said, "To those waiting with bated breath for that favorite media catchphrase, the U-turn, I have only one thing to say: You turn if you want to. The lady's not for turning!"

Truss had long admired Thatcher and hoped she could emulate her as the UK's newly-elected prime minister. But as we have witnessed already, Truss is no Thatcher. Nonetheless, Truss has demonstrated a strong sense of pragmatism and there are some advantages to show more flexibility as a politician.

We have entered a global era when the international economy appears headed for a downturn. The impending food and energy shortages are looming large. The UK is suffering from a cost of living crisis not seen since the 1970s.

Truss still has a chance to salvage her political reputation by listening more closely to British voters and offering good solutions to improve their livelihoods. Yet, she will long struggle with credibility matters. Once a national leader starts making U-turns it can turn into a bad habit and crutch.

There's also a trust issue. Truss had earlier insisted that she would stay committed to tax cuts, but she didn't. A true reformist politician does not like to reverse course. It takes courage for leaders to introduce groundbreaking economic measures and to stand behind them amid strong headwinds.

Hopefully, Truss will learn from this experience and stiffen up her political backbone.

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