Editor's note: Jonathan Arnott is a former member of the European Parliament. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The United Kingdom has (in the English language) the longest name of any country in the world. Its official name is "the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland": a union of England, Scotland and Wales (known as Great Britain), and Northern Ireland.

The boundaries between nations have changed over time. When the ancient Romans invaded Britain, the Emperor Hadrian built "Hadrian's Wall" as a boundary between England and Scotland, a simple line of defense. Today, that wall is in the middle of my former constituency of North East England, just north of Newcastle and a substantial distance from the boundary between England and Scotland.

The formalization of the United Kingdom as a union of nations took place through the Act of Union in 1707. For over three centuries, that has been the status quo (excepting the split of the island of Ireland).

When politicians speak of the possibility of that Union breaking up, it has often been mere rhetoric or hyperbole. Yet over the last 15 years, such claims have become more credible. Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford has sounded an alarm bell, warning that the risk of breakup of the United Kingdom is greater today than at any time in his political lifetime.

In my opinion, Drakeford is correct that there is a substantial concern, though he overstates his case slightly. The Scottish referendum on independence in 2014 saw Scotland vote to remain in the UK by a relatively narrow margin. There was a genuine possibility that the Union might have been broken at that time.

Today, the possibility of another imminent Scottish independence referendum seems remote. A referendum settles a constitutional question for a generation. It should not be revisited within a matter of a few years, and in any case, the opinion polls in Scotland currently show a narrow majority would vote to remain in the UK. In Wales, a huge majority wishes to remain part of the UK. The political party supporting Welsh independence usually receives between 18 percent and 25 percent of the vote: substantive, but nowhere near a majority.

The death of Queen Elizabeth II, and the accession of King Charles III to the throne, has not made any significant difference. If anything, the "pomp and circumstance" has been one of the few recent events to bring the nation together at a time when Western nations are sharply divided along cultural lines.

The breakup of the UK is not imminent. However, a generation of young people in Northern Ireland is more supportive of leaving the UK: 57 percent of 18 to 24-year-olds in a recent poll were in favor of a "united Ireland." Where, I wonder, will that leave the question in 15 or 20 years' time? We see the same trajectory in Scotland and, to a lesser extent, in Wales.

To me, Mark Drakeford's warning is not about today or tomorrow; it is about the fact that those who support the Union are sleepwalking into a potential future crisis. It is not enough for politicians to say why they believe the breakup of the Union would be a bad thing. At a time of political turmoil, every decision carries with it a sense of risk. The public may not be quite so risk-averse as they once were. If politicians always explain what they oppose, but never offer a positive vision, they will generate no enthusiasm from their own supporters.

Those who wish the political Union between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to persist indefinitely need to do more than offer comments about why independence would cause economic chaos. Fear of the unknown can only preserve a Union for a short period of time. Negativity and scaremongering were the weapons of choice for the Remain campaign in the referendum on Brexit, and the British people voted for Brexit anyway.  

British politicians wanting to retain the UK must provide clear and convincing answers to the important questions: What is it that unites this nation? What is our shared vision for the future? How are we better able to tackle the challenges of an ever-changing world by remaining a single nation? How can the Union adapt to become a truly 21st-century institution?

That means the British government, and the opposition Labour Party, must show leadership. They must have clear answers for those questions and articulate those answers to the people of all four nations of the UK. If they do not, then – as the famous quote from Casablanca goes – "maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but someday" the breakup of the United Kingdom could become inevitable.

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