Editor's Note: Launched by French President, Emmanuel Macron, the European Political Community has its first meeting on October 6, 2022 in Prague, Czech Republic. Jonathan Arnott is a former member of the European Parliament. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

CGTN: Will the meeting make progress on important topics, such as the Ukraine crisis, the economic and energy crisis in Europe? Why?

Arnott: I think it will be difficult for the European Political Community to make much progress on topics like Ukraine, the economy and the energy crisis. The reason is that it's a very large organization. It's going to have a lot of countries represented. The more countries that are involved in any issue, the harder it is to get any kind of consensus on that issue. So I think it will be difficult to make progress on any issue, to get a tangible agreement on any issue. All these issues are complex. The situation in Ukraine, the economy, the energy crisis, they are not only complex but also interlinked. They interact with each other. Each of these has a knock-on effect on the other two, so this is a particularly complex issue. And when you're talking about an organization which is new, which still has to find its fate, and it's got over 40 countries involved, this is going to be incredibly difficult to make tangible, concrete progress.

CGTN: How do you evaluate the role of the "European Political Community"? Can it bring stability to the continent?

Arnott: I believe that it can certainly help to provide stability. It is important that countries have dialogue with each other. This is something that matters across the world. But what practical impact(s) it will have? It can certainly have a small impact, but can it have a big impact? I think that remains to be seen.

It's very easy to have this plan that Macron wants to introduce this new system, but we don't know whether in practice it will go in the same way as many other super national institutions have in the past. Will it actually end up achieving the things that Macron says he wanted to achieve? Or will it end up with the same structural problems that other organizations have ended up with in the past? And that is what remains to be seen.

CGTN: "European Political Community" includes many non-EU member states. In that case, how will it affect the relations among European countries?

Arnott: In theory, it should be positive. In practice, we may see something very different. You have to look at the European Union at the moment to see how there are structural differences on key issues within the European Union already. Countries have significantly different opinions on how they would tackle Ukraine, the economic crisis (and) the energy crisis. And also different European countries have different challenges, particularly when it comes to the flow of energy, because different countries have got their energy basket set up differently. So when you already have that tension within the EU 27, when you have a forum discussing those same issues, which is much broader, of course you're going to have an even bigger difference of an opinion. I think, in theory, it should be good for relations between European countries. But in practice, I'm not so sure whether that will end up being the case or not, and doubtless time will tell.

CGTN: It is reported that the French-led organization intends to regain the dominance of the European Union, while neutralizing NATO and containing the U.S. Can that be achieved? Why so?

Arnott: I don't think this can be achieved now. The reason is that the idea that an organization with as many different views as this one can somehow have given the European Union, which is a small organization in terms of numbers, dominance doesn't really make any sense to me. I don't see how this organization can neutralize NATO, because it's not something which will be a decision-making body. So I think it's difficult to imagine, certainly within the next few years, that this organization would become a significant global power bloc.

But what we see with a lot of institutions is that they start off small, and then they grow. And the question is what they grow into later. So certainly in the next decade, I would say there is no chance that this organization can achieve those aims, (and) that it can make the European Union dominant or neutralized NATO or contain the United States. And I don't see a new organization like this with so many opinions around the table as being able to do that now.

Script editors: Yang Chuchu, She Ziyi

Video editor: Wu Mengjiao

Graphic designer: Li Jingjie

Executive producers: Bi Jianlu, Zhang Peijin, Wang Xinyan

Chief editors: Ren Yan, Wang Ying

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