Opinions
2022.10.08 18:32 GMT+8

Unnecessary escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula risks catastrophic results

Updated 2022.10.08 18:32 GMT+8
Gabriela Bernal

The United Nations Security Council discusses the Korean Peninsula situation at the UN headquarters in New York, the U.S., October 5, 2022. /CFP

Editor's note: Gabriela Bernal is a Korean analyst and a PhD student at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, Republic of Korea. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

It has been a highly eventful week-and-a-half on the Korean Peninsula. The DPRK has launched six rounds of missiles while the U.S. has conducted multiple multilateral military drills in nearby waters. The focus of the Republic of Korea (ROK) and U.S. administrations are, however, misplaced. Instead of going down a vicious cycle of seemingly endless provocations, a revised strategy to engage with the DPRK diplomatically is urgently needed. 

The DPRK's recent flurry of missile tests seems to have been triggered by U.S.-ROK joint military exercises as well as U.S.-ROK-Japan joint drills. The DPRK sees these exercises as provocative and as a "preparation to invade" its country. While the U.S. and the ROK tried to portray an image of a strong deterring force, for example by including the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and the nuclear-powered submarine USS Annapolis in the joint exercises, the effect on the DPRK has not been what the U.S. and its allies wished for.

It is clear to see that these tensions are not beneficial for any side and need to be stopped. The DPRK has made it very clear that it will not engage in any kind of negotiations as long as U.S. policy remains the same. In a speech last month, Kim Jong Un, the top leader of the DPRK, again reiterated his country's stance.

"There will never be such a thing as our abandonment of the nuclear weapons or denuclearization first, nor will there be any negotiations to this end or bargaining chip in these processes," Kim said.

Engaging with the DPRK does not mean ignoring its own provocations but instead means putting more importance on diplomacy instead of continuing the dangerous cycle of military provocations.

A TV screen at the Seoul Railway Station in Seoul, Republic of Korea, shows a news report on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea missile launch using file footage, October 6, 2022. /CFP

Pyongyang's position has been clear and not changed since the failed 2019 Hanoi summit. If the relevant parties were truly interested in reaching an agreement with the DPRK and on establishing long-lasting peace, they would revise their policies and realize that certain compromises are needed in order to conclude an effective deal.

With the U.S. distracted by the situation in Ukraine and other domestic problems, it is not prioritizing an effective DPRK strategy. This, however, is a big mistake given what's at stake. Although a war may be ongoing in Ukraine right now, a very real other war has never officially ended since 1950 on the Korean Peninsula. Ignoring one war for the sake of another is not a wise approach.

The ROK government should also focus more on drafting diplomatic approaches toward the DPRK instead of putting so much emphasis on military exercises. Former President Moon Jae-in had set a strong foundation for the further development of inter-Korean relations and the current ROK President Yoon Suk-yeol government should work on building from that. While there will always be variables out of the ROK's control, decisions made by the U.S., Seoul can and must do more to engage in a more proactive way with Pyongyang.

Focusing disproportionately on military affairs instead of on diplomacy does not make the region more secure, as some may think. Instead, it pulls each party further apart from each other and makes it more difficult to get back to the negotiating table.

It is time to reprioritize in such a way that can bring about constructive engagement with the DPRK based on trust-building, mutual-respect, and the goal of long-term peace. Anything short of this risks engulfing the entire region in prolonged conflict that could even result in all-out war.

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