International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist Pierre Olivier Gourinchas speaks during an interview at the IMF headquarters in Washington, DC, U.S., July 26, 2022. /CFP
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday maintained its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 at 3.2 percent, but lowered its projection for next year.
As the world feels the effects of the Ukraine conflict and high inflation, a third of the global economy is poised to contract this year or next "amid shrinking real incomes and rising prices," said the IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook report.
The organization cut the global growth forecast for 2023 to 2.7 percent, a 0.2-percentage point lower than its July forecast, saying, "for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession."
The U.S. is faced with tightening monetary and financial conditions, the report said, which will slow the world's largest economy's growth to 1 percent next year.
Meanwhile, the IMF said, "the slowdown is most pronounced in the euro area." The energy crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict will slow the bloc's economic growth to 0.5 percent in 2023, it added.
The organization warned that inflationary pressures are proving broader and more persistent than anticipated.
Global inflation is expected to peak at 9.5 percent this year before decelerating to 4.1 percent by 2024, it said.
Also, the effect of a strong U.S. dollar is a significant challenge for many emerging markets, said the IMF report, "as the rise appears mostly driven by fundamental forces such as tightening U.S. monetary policy and the energy crisis."
The U.S. Federal Reserve has already increased its interest rates five times in 2022, including three consecutive major rate hikes of 0.75 percentage point in June, July and September. The markets currently anticipate the Fed to raise rates just one more time in November.
"The appropriate response in most emerging and developing countries is to calibrate monetary policy to maintain price stability, while letting exchange rates adjust, conserving valuable foreign exchange reserves for when financial conditions really worsen," said the IMF.