Opinions
2022.10.14 17:08 GMT+8

UK's financial crisis appears unavoidable

Updated 2022.10.14 17:08 GMT+8
Thomas W. Pauken II

Governor of Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, during Bank of England's financial stability report press conference at Bank of England, London, August 4, 2022. /CFP

Editor's note: Thomas W. Pauken II is the author of  "U.S. vs China: From Trade War to Reciprocal Deal," a consultant on Asia-Pacific affairs and a geopolitical commentator. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The United Kingdom keeps making last-minute rescues to avert the potential of yet another imminent collapse in the financial markets, as well as with stabilizing the British pound. The Bank of England (BoE) looks set to make a U-turn in order to save pension funds from collapsing.

Nonetheless, new financial crunches are likely to emerge in the near-term and eventually the problems could become so massive that neither the UK government nor the Bank of England will struggle to contain them. We should anticipate for such hard times to come.

The recent turmoil was sparked last month by the British Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, announcing the government's proposed "mini-budget," which highlighted bold plans on tax cuts while still pledging to spend big on social welfare to help the British endure the high living costs confronting them.

The "mini-budget" shocked the financial markets while causing sterling’s value to plunge against the U.S. dollar. Kwarteng's announcement caused jitters in the markets since the UK government failed to address the widening budget deficits and the potential that it could exacerbate the UK's high inflation rates.

Prime Minister Liz Truss did herself no favors by reversing course and scrapping tax cuts for high income earners. That's because her U-turn signals weakness, not strength, and when there's too much pressure Truss would likely bend and do more reversals on her policies; and that's what we are witnessing for the moment.

Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng follows Britain's Prime Minister Liz Truss (unseen) out of her hotel on third day of annual Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham, England, October 4, 2022. /CFP

BoE joins the flip-flops' routine

Earlier this week, the Bank of England's Governor Andrew Bailey issued public statements that the central bank will halt its emergency bond-buying program on Friday, October 14, which meant an end to gilt purchases to shore up their derivatives positions.

For-the-record, derivatives are defined as "financial contracts, set between two or more parties, that derive their value from an underlying asset, group of assets, or benchmark," according to Investopedia.

So we can see why pensions on shaky ground with its derivatives could lead to a financial crisis that could spread across the global markets. But one also has to address matters of so-called "moral hazards."

When governments and central banks bail out companies from the brink of default, the lessons learned are that borrowers could make risky investment bets and in worst case scenarios they could rely on rescue packages. But in many cases, companies engaging in dubious business practices don't deserve to be bailed out.

Additionally, rapid boom-bust cycles could ensue. Companies that are deemed "too big to fail," could exploit the generous nature of their governments. And this appears to be happening in the UK right now. PM Truss has not shown the backbone to halt future bail out schemes, while the BoE has acted in a similar manner.

According to media reports, despite Governor Bailey's warnings on the halt to emergency bond-buying, the central bank's staffers have contradicted those plans. The Financial Times reported that, "the BoE had signaled privately to lenders that it was prepared to extend its emergency bond-buying program beyond Friday's deadline if market conditions demanded it."

Nonetheless, this looks like nothing more than stopping a small brush fire while the large-scale forest fire keeps spreading and burning. Such actions of Truss taking U-turns on economic policies will cause more harm than good.

No good news for UK economy

The UK's economy looks to be in poor shape for this year and next. The nation's gross domestic product (GDP) dropped 0.3 percent in August based on an unexpected drop in North Sea oil output levels along with challenges in domestic manufacturing and consumption.

"The economy shrank in August with both production and services falling back; and with a small downward revision to July's growth the economy contracted in the last three months as a whole," Office for National Statistics Chief Economist Grant Fitzner is quoted in media reports as saying.

He added, "Many other consumer-facing services struggled, with retail, hairdressers and hotels all faring relatively poorly."

Lenders anticipate the availability of mortgages and consumer and corporate credit to decrease since more British households and businesses have been defaulting on loans.

Meanwhile, rising interest rates and the dampening economic outlook have started to impact the demand for credit and its availability, according to a research report issued by the Bank of England.

The UK economy keeps going from weakness to weakness. The government is making its best efforts to prevent a financial crisis from erupting but ordinary Britains can't count on Truss to rescue them.

Crisis of confidence of Truss government

The repeated steps for Truss to take U-turns and the BoE to reverse course on emergency bond-buying measures are not sustainable measures to steer a straight path if the UK economy is to move ahead on a rebound.

The Truss government has already suggested that it may soon drop plans for further tax cut proposals. Such moves may spark a brief jump in the stock markets for a few days but it's not a permanent solution.

Just by reviewing the latest global economic trends, it's apparent that with the looming threats of energy shortages, higher costs of living and serious disruptions in supply chains, the conditions are not ripe for Truss to usher in a stronger economy for the UK.

PM Truss is headed for more stormy seas and eventually her U-turns and the BoE's liquidity rescues will fail to work their magic to stem the tide of a financial crisis that can no longer be contained. And when that happens, the ramifications could be catastrophic for the international economy overall.

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