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German investor morale stays low as recession looms
CGTN
General view of low water levels due to a dry season, preventing cargo vessels from being loaded on the Rhine in Cologne, Germany, July 16, 2022. /CFP
General view of low water levels due to a dry season, preventing cargo vessels from being loaded on the Rhine in Cologne, Germany, July 16, 2022. /CFP

General view of low water levels due to a dry season, preventing cargo vessels from being loaded on the Rhine in Cologne, Germany, July 16, 2022. /CFP

German investor confidence climbed "slightly" in October but remained low, a key survey said Tuesday, as Europe's top economy braces for a recession triggered by soaring energy costs.

The ZEW institute's economic expectations index unexpectedly rose to minus 59.2 points, from minus 61.9 points in September.

Analysts had predicted a fourth straight month of decline for October, as record-high inflation and skyrocketing energy prices in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict weigh on the German economy.

But ZEW president Achim Wambach said despite respondents' "slightly" improved expectations for the coming six months, the overall picture remained bleak.

He noted that the survey, in which a negative number means that most investors are pessimistic, also recorded a steep drop in investor confidence about Germany's current economic situation.

That reading fell by 11.7 points in October to minus 72.2 points.

"The current economic situation is once again assessed as significantly worse than in the previous month," Wambach said in a statement.

"The probability that real gross domestic product will decline in the course of the next six months has also increased considerably. Overall, the economic outlook has deteriorated again," he said.

The German government last week said the country was forecast to descend into recession next year and shrink by 0.4 percent because of the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Like other European nations, Germany is bracing for an energy crisis this winter after Russia shut down the crucial Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, leaving the industrial powerhouse scrambling to diversify supplies.

"Germany is already being hit harder than most other advanced economies ... given its strong reliance on gas in energy generation, large energy-intensive industry sector and reliance on exports," said economist Franziska Palmas from Capital Economics. 

"We continue to expect Germany to experience the deepest recession among eurozone countries in the coming months," she added.

The German government has pledged a 200-billion-euro ($198 billion) energy fund to cushion the impact on households and businesses.

(Source: AFP with edits)

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