Opinions
2022.11.02 19:46 GMT+8

Globalization may be down but not dead; China to lead its revival

Updated 2022.11.02 19:46 GMT+8
Abhishek G Bhaya

Over the decades, globalization has become one of the fundamental blocks of international stability, continued economic growth, and the future of our planet. /CFP

Editor's note: Abhishek G Bhaya is a senior journalist and international affairs commentator. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The world is undergoing unprecedented challenges – a global pandemic that has lasted for a quarter short of three years; the Russia-Ukraine military conflict that shows no sign of de-escalation even after eight months; and the prolonged and dangerous geopolitical encircling of China launched by the U.S. that threatens regional and global peace.

The significant events have not only exposed the brittleness of global supply chains but severely disrupted and shattered the global food and energy markets, impacting, directly or indirectly, hundreds of millions of people worldwide. So much so, that many economists, politicians and analysts have already started writing obituaries and bidding farewell to "globalization" as we have known and experienced it in recent decades. 

Some pundits have gone as far as claiming that the combination of concurrent and ongoing crises has reversed the second great era of globalization, just like World War I and the Great Influenza of 1918 had put an end to the first era of globalization. 

Wall Street experts such as BlackRock Inc. chairman Laurence Fink and Oaktree Capital Group co-founder Howard Marks categorically said that the era of expanding global trade and financial ties has ended. 

Kristalina Georgie, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned of an imminent "geoeconomic fragmentation" while Michael O'Sullivan, former investment banker and economist at Princeton University, emphasized that globalization was already dead and "we need to invent a new world order."

But is globalization truly dead? 

Certainly not. It may be momentarily down, but not in the coffin.

In the long run, globalization is bound to spring back; and China, as the world's second-largest economy and the most prolific trading nation, is well-placed to lead that globalization revival path. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping, in his report to the recently held 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), said that China "adheres to the right course of economic globalization" and "is committed to working with other countries to… create new drivers for global growth."

While there's a demonstrable setback to globalization in the wake of the recent cataclysmic geopolitical and geoeconomic developments, writing an epitaph "in the loving memory of globalization" is premature. It does not match the empirical reality, particularly if one observes the macro aspects of global developments from Asia, and not from the Western hemisphere.

How we measure globalization may still vary, but the term could be simplified to mean greater financial integration, political cooperation, trade of goods and services among countries and greater mobility of people through international travel and exchanges. Despite a temporary hindrance to these basic aspects of globalization in the wake of the pandemic, there has been credible growth recorded in all these domains since the beginning of this year.

World moving closer again

A close look at global trends suggests that the world is moving closer again with every passing day and is well on its way to attaining pre-pandemic interconnectivity. Last year, global trade hit a record $28.5 trillion, up 25 percent year-on-year and 13 percent higher than in 2019, before the pandemic struck. 

For all the talk of decoupling, U.S.-China trade swelled to more than 20 percent last year, to $687.2 billion. The U.S. remains China's largest goods trading partner and export market and China is still the U.S.'s largest goods trading partner, its largest supplier of imported goods, and its third-largest export market.

And, despite the Russia-Ukraine war, global trade continues to have a growth outlook in 2022, although at a slower pace.

Interestingly, cross-border investment also exceeded pre-pandemic levels last year, swelling to $1.65 trillion. China, in particular, is more integrated into the global economy than ever before. Foreign direct investments (FDI) into the Chinese mainland, jumped to $155.3 billion in the first nine months of the year, an increase of 18.9 percent year on year.

While international travel hasn't yet gone back to the pre-pandemic levels and global trade remains behind in proportion to global GDP from its peak in 2008, the concept of globalization is evolving and taking shape in ever new ways and non-physical dimensions. 

Over half a million new users connect to the Internet every single day, adding to this new non-physical dimension of globalization. /CFP

The pandemic has triggered a colossal rise in monthly global data traffic which is forecast to surge to 780 exabytes by 2026, a 300 percent increase from 2020. Over half a million new users connect to the Internet every single day, adding to this new dimension of globalization.

Globalization is an irrevocable force. There has been a relentless push by all nations toward more global integration throughout the period following World War II. All the post-World War global multilateral institutions were created to facilitate increased political and economic cooperation. Globalization, however picked up steam after the Cold War's end with the fall of the Berlin Wall. In the ensuing period, it helped to bring billions of people out of poverty, with China leading the way. 

Over the decades, globalization has become one of the fundamental blocks of international stability, continued economic growth, and the future of our planet. Given the high stakes involved, it is imperative for the international community to pursue globalization in all earnest today, perhaps with much greater vigor.

China at the forefront

China has stood at the forefront of the global drive to constructive globalization and remains one of the key forces for its perpetuation. The story of China's development over the four decades since the Reform and Opening-Up was launched is entwined with the globalization process. China has been among the largest beneficiaries of and most important contributors to globalization through increasing cross-border flows of capital, goods and people.

Globalization has led to China's spectacular development and rise on the international stage, and it is well-placed to play a constructive role in tackling new challenges toward the next stages of globalization, as it exports its enabling infrastructure and technologies to all corners of the globe.

In recent years, China has backed many multilateral initiatives including the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); founded multilateral development banks such as the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and New Development Bank (NDB); and promoted multilateral platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), BRICS and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – all geared towards encouraging multilateralism and globalization.

China's commitment to globalization, as displayed in President Xi's report to the 20th CPC National Congress, will remain critical to the next phase of globalization when confronting the current challenges. 

"It is true that economic globalization has created new problems. But this is no justification to write off economic globalization altogether," Xi said in his speech at the 2017 WEF in Davos. "Rather we should adapt to and guide globalization, cushion its negative impact, and deliver its benefits to all countries and all nations."

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