Editor's note: Nikola Mikovic is a freelance journalist based in Serbia. He covers mostly Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian foreign policy issues and writes for multiple web magazines. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

Ever since it came into existence in the 1970s, the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) – renamed the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in 1994 – played a significant role in observing elections and providing technical assistance to various countries. But when it comes to resolving conflicts in Europe, it is the United States-dominated NATO, rather than OSCE, that served as the prominent actor.

As a result of the Kosovo War in 1999, thousands of NATO troops have been deployed to the southern Serbian province. Prior to 1998, the OSCE Kosovo Verification Mission was established, but it failed to prevent the conflict. Even nowadays, when occasional tensions in northern Kosovo threaten to destabilize the region, it's the United States and NATO, rather than OSCE, that have the last say.

Although the OSCE Minsk Group, created in 1992, encouraged a peaceful, negotiated resolution to the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, the two countries fought the 44-day war in 2020. Nonetheless, it was Russia with its peacekeepers, rather than an OSCE mission, that helped the two sides end the war. Amid renewed tensions in the South Caucasus, various global and local actors claim the OSCE Minsk Group no longer works.

The OSCE mission in the Donbas – deployed to the region in 2014 –could not prevent escalation of the conflict. Still, there are hopes the OSCE can manage to ease the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The annual meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the OSCE participating states – take place from December 1 to 2 in Lodz, Poland – could demonstrate if it has the political capacity to play an active role to resolve the Ukraine conflict.

"The annual meeting is an opportunity for the Foreign Ministers to review and assess the security situation in the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian area, as well as the organization's work in all its fields of activity," the Polish presidency said.

Yet, Russia – an OSCE member – will not participate, since Polish authorities have refused to allow a Russian delegation to enter its territory. The Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) was not invited to the OSCE conference, which indicates the West aims to isolate Russia. The Russian Foreign Ministry sees such actions as "unprecedented and provocative," claiming that Warsaw is "pushing the OSCE into the abyss."

Additionally, Ukraine is urging the OSCE to do more to help Kyiv defeat Russia. So it remains unclear why the Kremlin remains a formal member of this entity.

Russia hopes to reach a peace or a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine. Therefore, it's possible an OSCE mission could be deployed to the Eastern European country to report potential ceasefire violations, as it did from 2014 until 2022. Nonetheless, Russia would not have its voice heard and there is no guarantee the organization, dominated by Western countries, would act as an unbiased actor.

Poland's decision not to allow Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to participate in the 29th OSCE Ministerial Council represents another Western attempt to humiliate Moscow. The Kremlin's restrained reaction could be interpreted in the West as a sign of weakness.

Since Lavrov is not allowed to enter the European Union, the Russian ambassador to the OSCE is expected to lead the Russian delegation in Poland. Does that mean the West can determine the composition of the Russian delegation? Given that Moscow continues playing the game according to Western rules, the United States and its allies would not give up their current geopolitical course, which means the Ukraine conflict won't get resolved soon.

That's why there are low expectations for the upcoming OSCE meeting. The Lodz summit is expected to serve as another platform where the U.S. and its Western partners will condemn Russia's actions. The OSCE meeting will take place after the NATO conference in Romania – an event, from the perspective of security in Europe, has far greater significance than the Lodz gathering.

Therefore, the form of the OSCE summit will likely overtake its substance, which means the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe is expected to continue coping with an existential crisis.

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