A train of the Etihad Rail network in the United Arab Emirates, April 1, 2021. /CFP
A train of the Etihad Rail network in the United Arab Emirates, April 1, 2021. /CFP
Editor's note: Hannan Hussain is a foreign affairs commentator and author. He is a Fulbright recipient at the University of Maryland and a former assistant researcher at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
Next year will be the 10th anniversary since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Beijing's sprawling exercise in global infrastructure development has seen Chinese enterprises invest about $43 billion in economic and trade cooperation zones. The initiative has facilitated market access, and pushed Chinese non-financial direct investment beyond the $140 billion mark in BRI countries. The BRI's role in global development success is even more vital hereon.
There's long-term demand for boosting global infrastructure. After all, challenges to narrowing the global infrastructure gap, particularly in the developing world, remain pronounced. Meanwhile, the BRI delivers finance and optimizes the development capacities of developing countries, while facilitating long-term economic stability by bringing markets closer together. All these are upsides for a range of trade-oriented economies in the world today, including BRI partners in Southeast Asia, who have a shared stake in making infrastructure development a "public good."
2022 has also been a telling year for stronger development synergies between the BRI and national development strategies of other nations. From new digital economy growth-points with the Saudi Vision 2030 to seamless progression with the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity 2025, Belt and Road partners have been responsive to practical cooperation tailored to local livelihoods.
Complementing that win-win spirit, Beijing has encouraged the independent growth trajectories of all its partners and respects that autonomy. And still, it managed to explore avenues for future development synergies between national growth visions. That is a message of confidence amid global economic turbulence, and indicates that the BRI's progress will undergo a multiplier effect in the future.
On trade acceleration, the initiative has proven to be helpful. China's trade with Belt and Road partners grew by 20.4 percent in the first 11 months of this year, indicating substantial potential to scale trade and investments into the next year. Moreover, such optimism arrived despite downward pressures elsewhere, and those very pressures are likely to sustain into 2023 as well. All this underlines the resilience of trade under the BRI and how it serves as a fixture for continued economic recovery, particularly for low-to-middle income economies.
The containers of the sea-rail intermodal train at Jiangsu Hai'an Railway Logistics Base leave the freight station, April 30, 2022. /VCG
The containers of the sea-rail intermodal train at Jiangsu Hai'an Railway Logistics Base leave the freight station, April 30, 2022. /VCG
Next year, China is set to host the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, in a bid to broaden development opportunities with the world, and to consolidate the BRI family's vision of the future. The twin challenges of a global pandemic and lasting economic slowdown couldn't prevent the BRI from reinforcing what mattered most: Greater equity and representation in infrastructure development for all.
By representing a shared community in both diplomacy and development, the BRI has emerged as a mega gathering of 150 countries by now, following five new partner additions this year. Add to it over 30 pre-engaged international organizations, and there is a much larger stake for all stakeholders to cater to each other's comparative strengths amid a world in flux. That includes efforts to diversify investments under the BRI to narrow the global development financing gap. It also includes effort to take on wide-ranging issues, from hard infrastructure and energy to low-carbon development.
Trade-oriented growth, as facilitated by the BRI this year, can lend impetus to scores of emerging economies that are keen to navigate growth headwinds long-term. In Southeast Asia alone, the BRI's strong focus on connecting markets has produced a natural incentive for opening up economies in the region. Consistent and flexible BRI infrastructure financing adds optimism and strengthens the case for partner nations to explore diverse trade relations.
Such autonomy can elevate the BRI's promise as a melting pot for socioeconomic and welfare gains, especially by the end of this decade. After all, it's estimated that if all BRI projects were to get implemented, annual global welfare gains could climb to as high as $1.6 trillion annually by 2030. That could represent about 1.3 percent of the global GDP, with revenue generation catering largely to low-to-middle-income economies.
This is what concrete cooperation under the BRI looks like, and what the future of people-centric growth holds.
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