Editor's Note: Sino-U.S. relations have been of great concern in recent times, and the upcoming visit to China of Antony Blinken, U.S. secretary of state, has grabbed global attention. What issues will be discussed? With tensions in trade and security issues, will the visit bear any fruit? Josef Gregory Mahoney, professor of politics and international relations at East China Normal University, and Xie Tao, dean of the School of International Relations and Diplomacy at Beijing Foreign Studies University, share their views. The commentary reflects the authors' opinions and not necessarily those of CGTN.

CGTN: What issues will be discussed during Antony Blinken's visit?

Mahoney: Predictably, we've seen reports Blinken wants to discuss trade policy, human rights, and Taiwan. It's also reported that Blinken wants to discuss the U.S. citizens detained in China as well as China's alleged expansion of its nuclear arsenal. Additionally, Blinken wants to discuss returning to high-level dialogues on counternarcotics cooperation and military-to-military communications.

Xie: This is the first visit by the U.S. secretary of state in five years. So, there's a lot to catch up, to begin with and then there are so many new issues. So therefore, I think Antony Blinken to come over to Beijing and to talk with his Chinese counterpart is a major signal of progress for the bilateral relationship. We should be well prepared for a candid constructive dialogue on a wide range of issues in U.S.-China relations.

Mahoney: With the Xi-Biden meeting in Bali, then the Yellen-Liu meeting in Switzerland, and soon Blinken's visit to Beijing, I think China has entered these discussions in good faith, has supported the return of high-level dialogues with purpose of finding constructive ways forward, but I don't think Washington views it the same way. I'm concerned that these meetings serve the American narrative that it's "managing the relationship," which is meant to reassure and reassert a type of paternalism in global discourse, while also using these engagements as opportunities to showcase either its power, or more dangerously, to portray itself as either a victim or the hero who's going to protect others from a rising China.

CGTN: What are the possible impacts of the visit in the short term?

Mahoney: There are a lot of people in China and throughout Asia who want to see an improvement in China-U.S. relations. But given the track record under Trump and Biden, I see no reason yet to be optimistic. Instead, almost every indicator points to a continued decline and the possibility of open conflict at some point. However, I do think we're starting to see significant cracks in the American anti-China containment efforts. And I think these cracks will continue to grow as long as the conflict in Ukraine weakens Europe, which now more than ever is a de facto proxy war of the United States, as long as the U.S. continues to pressure countries to pick sides against China, as long as the U.S. continues to abuse the global economy with its fiscal and monetary mismanagement, and so on. If Blinken grandstands and offers little in the way of improved ties, I think it may backfire potentially and undermine American support in the region and beyond.

Xie: The most important, at least symbolic, meaning of this visit is that the two sides now are engaged with each other again after this COVID-19 three years of separation, plus the U.S.-China relationship already deteriorated very much even before the outbreak of COVID-19. The U.S.-China relationship is of such great concern to countries around the world. Like what if there is an armed conflict between the two countries, right？That obviously would destabilize not just East Asia but the whole world. That could disrupt the global supply chain and that would be devastating to global economy. And so again, I think there's no exaggeration to say that for the two sides to sit down and talk to each other is a major progress in working toward a better relationship.

Editors: Liang Zhiqiang, Duan Jiaxin

Graphic designer: Qi Haiming

Producer: Wang Ying

Chief editor: Li Shouen

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