The Russia-Ukraine conflict will soon enter its second year, with Moscow trying to regain the initiative and Kyiv relying on Western tanks to mount a counteroffensive later in 2023.

Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands on Tuesday promised Ukraine that they will provide at least 100 tanks in the "coming months" and the defense ministries of the three European countries also said training and support would be provided for the Leopard 1 tanks.

The increasing tank aid to Ukraine has led to questions about how the move will affect the conflict.

While media reports suggest it will take months to transfer Western tanks to Ukraine and train soldiers to operate them, experts warned that the incoming tanks could lead to a battlefield disaster rather than be a game changer.

"Those saying 'Ukraine has already incorporated other things, they can do this too!' I'd only say I've seen U.S. units - at our training centers ... and in combat get just a few things wrong and it causes disaster and failure. Lethal tanks turn into pillboxes that don't move or shoot," Mark Hertling, a military analyst who once commanded the U.S. Army's 1st Armored Division, said on Twitter. 

"To make all this work, it takes training, maintenance, supply & a team - beyond just the tankers - to get this right on the battlefield," he added.

Wei Dongxu, a special commentator for China Media Group, said gifting old Leopard tanks to Ukraine helps the West reduce inventory of their own military equipment, but also consumes Russian combat powers and contains Russia's overall strategy and military operation.

Tanks and other weaponry pledges

Between January 24, 2022 and November 20, 2022, the U.S. announced the most military aid to Ukraine, worth 22.86 billion euros, according to the Ukraine Support Tracker by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The UK and Germany were among other big donors.

During the same period, EU countries and institutions ranked first with 51.8 billion euros in the government support to Ukraine, and the U.S. government ranked second with support of 47.8 billion euros, data from the Ukraine Support Tracker showed.

Since the conflict began in February 2022, at least 30 countries have provided military equipment to Ukraine, and Western countries including Germany and Poland have pledged hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles to Ukraine since January this year.

The U.S. is sending Ukraine a new $2.1 billion weapons package, including a new ground-launched, bomb-tipped rocket.

With tank pledges in hand, Ukraine has been asking allies to provide modern fighter jets in recent days to boost its military capabilities.

Experts have noted that red lines in other areas have already shifted, including the Western opposition to delivering heavy tanks which was dropped in January.

So far, the U.S. has said "No" to sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, while the Netherlands said it could send some F-16s to Ukraine and French President Emmanuel Macron has said that "nothing is ruled out."

Noting the heavy offensive weapons the Western countries pledged to Ukraine, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday that the U.S. and its allies are trying to prolong the conflict as much as possible.

(Data edited by Sun Yiwen; graphics designed by Mukesh Mohanan)