U.S. President Joe Biden arrives at a military airport in Warsaw, Poland, February 20, 2023. /CFP
Editor's note: Bradley Blankenship is a Prague-based American journalist, political analyst and freelance reporter. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
U.S. President Joe Biden is visiting Poland and will "meet with President Andrzej Duda of Poland to discuss our bilateral cooperation, as well as our collective efforts to support Ukraine and bolster NATO's deterrence," according to White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.
The visit comes almost a year after Biden visited Warsaw and delivered a powerful speech as he said that the Russian ruble is now reduced to rubble and that Western sanctions were working to cripple Russia's economy.
The speech was seen as a rallying cry for the West to unite, militarily and economically, in the wake of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. But Biden's discussion of the Russian currency is false since the ruble has rebounded above pre-war levels and the Russian economy itself appears stable. Meanwhile, the West, ever so united against Russia, faces a critical juncture.
First of all, the recent bombshell report from American journalist Seymour Hersh, in which he blames the U.S. for blowing up Nord Stream pipelines in a sabotage mission. Even though the White House has categorized the report as false, and that it hasn't discussed the issue with "partners and allies" because of its falsehood, and it still is a shadow over Biden's European sojourn.
So, the primary difference between now and then, one year ago, is that Biden seemed to have united the West. Now his government, the leader of the West, is working in damage control. It is cobbling together a cohesive message and vision for Ukraine. State Department officials are one day saying they want to avoid a dramatic escalation of the conflict, while the next matter is contradicted by an inferior official who wants to "demilitarize" the Crimean Peninsula, a major red-line for the Russian state.
Europeans are, on the other hand, disjointed. It appears that Central and Eastern European EU states, except for Hungary, are pushing a more aggressive approach to arming, training and otherwise providing logistical support to Ukraine to vanquish. Realizing how demanding it is for either Kyiv or Moscow to achieve their aims in the conflict, Western European countries, such as France and Germany, are saying they hope to avoid escalation and end the conflict as soon as possible through negotiations.
A Ukrainian military vehicle drives by as an apartment building burns in the distance in Bakhmut, Ukraine, February 14, 2023. /CFP
As the one-year anniversary of the conflict draws near, we will see a barrage of fake reports and information aimed at promoting either side's war efforts. Some in the U.S., including Open Society Foundation leader George Soros, on the eve of the Munich Security Conference, said Russia would plan a major offensive to finish its task in Ukraine, but, if resisted, could present an opportunity for Ukraine to defeat Russia once and for all – which would be a great joy for all Soviet states, he claimed.
But even if the White House does not share such views (and indeed many within it likely do even if it is not a consensus), the timing of Biden's visit will yet again rally a united Western front should Russia escalate the conflict. Hence, that may be a tall order for him; given the extraordinarily horrible image the Hersh report has exposed Uncle Sam as belligerent. European leaders, even if they do not express it publicly, might believe this report is credible – and they may want answers, even if privately.
Apparently, the pressure of the Hersh report is too tremendous. The West cannot unite when its leader commits acts of ecological terrorism against its own allies. Accordingly, American influence, associated with the hardline pro-military stance in Ukraine, in Europe will diminish. That will present a window of opportunity for negotiations and peace talks led by such leaders as French President Emmanuel Macron.
That is very beneficial for Europe and for the world. The conflict in Ukraine has cost countless lives, displaced millions and caused damages estimated on the high end at around $1 trillion. The conflict must come to an end – and fast.
The resulting sanctions against Russia over the conflict are harming European economies and thrusting the continent's sudden de-industrialization. It is in all of the Europeans' best interests to return to the negotiating table – even if that is not what Biden calls for.
Biden entered the White House in January 2021 as a man ready to unite the transatlantic community. His return today embodies the exact reason why the transatlantic relationship may, someday soon, change form forevermore.
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