Editor's note: Daryl Guppy is an international financial technical analysis expert. He has provided a weekly Shanghai Index analysis for media for the Chinese mainland for more than a decade. Guppy appears regularly on CNBC Asia and is known as "The Chart Man." He is a national board member of the Australia China Business Council. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily those of CGTN.

The centerpiece of AUKUS is the Australian purchase of nuclear-powered submarines, initially from the United States, then later from the United Kingdom. The formal announcement in San Diego confirms a momentous policy shift that isolates Australia from the geographical region in which it sits, adding to the forces of instability.

Former Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer summarised this noting that "the neutralist, non-aligned approach to Australian foreign policy is, for all intents and purposes, dead in the water." Whilst Australia has usually sided with the United States in its military ventures, it has not always done so to the extent that the Americans would like. Under previous prime ministers, including Malcolm Fraser and Paul Keating, Australia did pursue policy objectives that attracted U.S. ire. Former Prime Minister Fraser authored a book with the self-explanatory title "Dangerous Allies."

When Australia was seen as nominally independent, its voice in regional forums and its contribution to regional stability were respected. APEC was proposed and enabled by Australia despite U.S. objections.

The AUKUS submarine announcement confirms Australia is no longer able to exercise a foreign policy that is significantly at odds with American interests or the UK's revanchist imperial ambitions. This situation is akin to vassal bondage because U.S. and UK submarines depend on shared technology that is not controlled by Australia so they are forever at the mercy of their foreign suppliers who can disable or withhold operating systems.

This dependence reshapes Australia's engagement with the region and with China. It impacts Australia's ability to participate in multi-lateral forums in its own right and to promote its own interests. The fiction of Australia's neutrality with an American bias has been replaced with outright vassalage. When Australia speaks in these forums, many will struggle to separate Australian statements from American objectives.

Rather than contributing to regional stability, this division into hardened blocs undermines the independence of these multi-lateral forums. RCEP discussions will be hampered by bloc positions rather than a genuine discussion of solutions with a multiplicity of independent viewpoints. It means that many issues are less likely to be decided on their merits, but rather on ideological grounds with some endorsing U.S.-backed solutions simply because the solutions are favored by the U.S. No longer neutral, Australia will be seen as a proxy for the United States, giving it less room for independence in its approach to regional matters.

Indonesia and Malaysia have publicly expressed concerns about this nuclear addition to the region and fear it will lead to an arms race and increased regional instability. AUKUS submarines are a nuclear proliferation that stands at odds with Australia's commitment to a nuclear-free Pacific. This uncomfortable contradiction is brushed away by Australian leaders, but the flimsy explanations leave many regional leaders unsatisfied. The gravity of the problem is acknowledged with a concerted Australian campaign of visits and briefings to regional counterparts designed to allay their concerns.

The San Diego announcement makes Australia a firm partner in promoting instability in the region through its intention to elevate participation in aggressive military activity.

Although the first of the submarines will not be delivered for another decade, the San Diego announcement is a statement of intent that strips aside the flimsy pretence that it's about maintaining peace.

As British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said, these submarines will counter what AUKUS partners claim as China's "growing assertiveness" in the Indo-Pacific. AUKUS is a platform that promotes growing regional instability with aggressive naval patrols under the guise of freedom of navigation. AUKUS partners continue to interfere in relation to China's Taiwan region with actions designed to goad China and which also add to regional instability.

The San Diego announcement signals the end of Australia's neutrality. It signals the end of Australia's ability to work diplomatically in the region as a trusted ''honest'' broker in multilateral discussions to maintain regional stability. Australia's decisions, its policy objectives, its contributions to regional discussions can no longer be considered neutral. 

The San Diego announcement diminishes Australia's influence in the region because it is for all intents and practical purposes beholden to the U.S. in what is effectively a surrender of the last vestiges of genuine foreign policy independence. This does not enhance stability in the region because it cements Australian ties to America's aggressive approach to China. 

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