Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang and Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Reina shake hands after signing a joint communique on the establishment of diplomatic relations in Beijing, capital of China, March 26, 2023. /Xinhua
Editor's note: Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily those of CGTN.
China and Honduras established formal relations on March 26 after the latter rescinded its prior decades-long "diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities.
This is a major move for several reasons, first of which is that it contributes to the growing isolation of that island's authorities. Their unofficial separatist cause is now regarded as even more fringe than ever before after Honduras just became the latest country to dump it. There are now only 13 states that still have "ties" with Taiwan, which is a historic low.
Second, this couldn't have happened had the Honduran authorities not reassessed their country's role in the global systemic transition to multipolarity. They clearly realized that there weren't any benefits inherent in retaining their prior U.S.-influenced policy.
To the contrary, continuing to cling to that stance deprived Honduras of trade and investment opportunities that this declining unipolar hegemon wasn't adequately providing. In response, they bravely defied its demands by making their sovereign choice.
Moreover, Honduras is part of what the U.S. refers to as the "Northern Triangle" together with El Salvador and Guatemala. These three are considered by it to be drug trafficking and illegal immigration transit states.
Despite pledging $4 billion to them in summer 2021, last year saw a record 2.76 million illegal border crossings and the seizure of enough fentanyl to kill the entire U.S. population. This proves that U.S. aid wasn't sufficient to counteract these security challenges, thus bolstering the above-mentioned point.
Furthermore, the U.S.'s aforesaid failure to adequately provide trade and investment opportunities that improve Hondurans' livelihoods and help their state counteract drug and migration challenges contrasts with the tangible improvements experienced by China's partners.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has helped lift millions of people across the Global South out of poverty and turn their countries into economic success stories. It was therefore sensible for Honduras to consider tapping into these opportunities too.
A view of a village in Comayagua, Honduras, March 25, 2023. /Xinhua
And finally, this latest development will likely lead to fellow "Northern Triangle" states Guatemala and nearby Belize rethinking their diplomatic relations with Taiwan after seeing the benefits that Honduras reaps by severing it. Although Taiwan's leader Tsai Ing-wen will be traveling to those two countries next week, where she's expected to bribe them into retaining their relations, all her attempt will be in vain at last.
As Honduras' latest example proves, it's impossible to prevent the course of history from unfolding, which in this case refers to the inevitable recognition from all members of the international community of the People's Republic of China as the only legitimate government in the country. Those Cold War-era holdouts that still retain "ties" with Taiwan are unilaterally depriving themselves of valuable trade and investment opportunities, not to mention senselessly standing in the way of history.
The longer that they cling to this counterproductive policy, the longer that they will have to wait before finding their roles in the ongoing global systemic transition, by which time there might be comparatively less competitive advantages for them than before.
Honduras did the right thing by rescinding its prior recognition of Taiwan despite immense U.S. pressure, which proves that any other country can do so too if they truly have the political will since Honduras is one of this declining hegemon's oldest partners.
The demonstration effect of this decision will reverberate throughout the region. It's only a matter of time before the remaining 13 states follow Honduras' lead, with the only question being who will be the next one to do so and when.
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