A huge slogan board stands in front of the U.S. Capitol building during a protest against government surveillance in Washington, D.C., U.S., October 26, 2013. /Xinhua
Editor's note: Keith Lamb is an independent international relations analyst who focuses on China's socialist development and global inequality. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
The press is abuzz with the news that "the United States is facing possibly its worst intelligence leak since Edward Snowden." Leaked intelligence files marked as "top secret" and "NOFORN," which stands for "not releasable to foreign nationals" meaning not even Five Eyes Alliance members would be able to see them, cover the conflict in Ukraine, and information on U.S. allies.
The problem is ascertaining the validity of the leak. Speculation abounds whether it is a genuine leak, purposeful U.S. disinformation, or even pro-Russian disinformation designed to sew discord amongst NATO allies. If it is a genuine leak, then the origin of the leak is suggested to be the work of outside hacking, a spy, or a disgruntled member within the U.S. administration who disagrees with the war in Ukraine, which much of the leak covers.
The leak is unlikely U.S. disinformation to confuse the Russians. If it is, they've scored a home goal by spreading mass confusion amongst NATO allies by publishing the leak online. If it was a purposeful leak, it would be more advantageous to have fake information covertly "stolen" by Russian hackers - something I suspect happens frequently within intelligence circles.
Of course, considering the audacity of the Nord Stream destruction, contrasting with the apathy of Europe towards even finding the truth, some might argue that U.S. intelligence circles believe they can do anything. However, the stamping down of the truth and the media blackout, surrounding the Nord Stream terrorist act, demonstrates how sensitive the U.S. is to attracting negative public attention.
Furthermore, supposing the leak was purposely initiated by U.S. intelligence, giving information such as the vague timing of a Ukrainian spring offensive and which Ukrainian unit will be receiving British challenger tanks, it doesn't add much to the pragmatic Russian positions on the ground who are on high alert to Ukrainian attacks and know exactly who is well armed. My point is, this information would only be secondary to the physical facts and if the leaked information is accurate (and even truthful plans change) it will only confirm what the Russians largely know.
The Pentagon seen from an airplane over Washington, D.C., February 19, 2020. /Xinhua
Some argue the leak is purposeful Russian disinformation and Kyiv states that the documents are fake. However, Michael Mulroy, a former senior Pentagon official has declared that "the focus is on this being a U.S. leak, as many of the documents were only in U.S. hands." Statements from Pentagon officials all describe the U.S. in investigation and damage control mode. The Department of Defense is checking all recipients of the leaked documents and a working group has been set up to assess the impact of the leak. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the U.S. will "turn over every rock" to find the source of leak. Evidently, this points to a U.S. insider disseminating real information.
What is fake in the leak is the report that one million Russians have died in the conflict, which contrasts heavily with Reuters' figure of 16,000 to 17,500 deaths. If this is Russian disinformation then they would be better off applying for a job in the CIA. Likewise, if this is U.S. intelligence then they obviously need to lay off some people.
In fact, the one million figure, as claimed by the Dutch investigative group Bellingcat, has been crudely photoshopped to a document that had been circulating online for some time before its editing. Indeed, the first of the over 100 documents were released online in January of this year.
Despite the crude editing and the incredulous figure of one million, it was reported as fact in Britain's Telegraph newspaper, in early March, by an intelligence expert. Thus, the plot thickens. Either the intelligence expert was taken in or his piece is part of a wider disinformation campaign by secret services who have been quietly aware of this leak for some time. By reporting the forged document as a fact, they perhaps hoped to cast doubt on the veracity of other information within the leak and prepare the way for a potential official explanation that describes the leak as fake.
More likely, considering Seymour Hersh's revelations about the U.S. destruction of Nord Stream, there is a growing consciousness by some within U.S. intelligence and governmental circles to the corrupt nature of U.S. hard power, which has long been derailed from the causes of justice American citizens stand for. Certainly, the whistle-blower, who reported the events of the Nord Stream destruction to Hersh, can be counted as one such patriot.
The sure bet is that these documents were released by a high-up U.S. official tired of U.S. deceit with the first leak coming only three months after the Nord Stream pipeline destruction. It is likely that this dark event awoke a consciousness of the malign intent that the U.S. has not only towards "turban-wearing enemies" but also towards Western European allies with a similar cultural and value system to that of many Americans - many of whom descend from ancestors fleeing European tyranny and poverty which is now being re-imposed onto the continent from the other side of the Atlantic.
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