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India will surpass China as the world's most populous nation – with about 2.9 million more people – by the middle of this year, according to the United Nations Population Fund's State of World Population report for 2023. Subsequently, some Western countries have been vigorously hyping up the "significant economic implications" of India overtaking China in population.

However, the fact is that the driving force for China's economic growth remains strong.

To begin with, China's demographic dividend is not disappearing. Despite slowing population growth, nearly 900 million out of China's 1.4 billion people are of working age, and are making steady contributions to the economy. National Bureau of Statistics data shows that China's job market has remained stable, with unemployment witnessing a downward trend. In 2022, over 12 million new urban jobs were created, exceeding the target of 11 million.

In addition, the expanding middle-income group – exceeding 400 million – means an immeasurable market in China. The 2023 McKinsey China Consumer Report identified "a continuously rising middle class" as the trend reshaping China's consumer market this year. The rising income level and stronger consumption capacity have instilled strong momentum for the Chinese economy.

The Chinese government has also rolled out a series of stimulus measures including a third-child policy to boost population growth. The still large working-age population, the blossoming job market, expanding middle-income group and supporting state measures mean the demographic dividend will not totally disappear, as some Westerners hype.

Second, a country's demographic dividend depends not only on size, but also on quality. China's talent dividend is increasing, thanks to the compulsory education. The average length of education for the working-age Chinese is 10.9 years, according to the Foreign Ministry. The latest additions to the workforce have received 14 years of education on average.

The government has been investing heavily in education, and this has laid the foundation for the country's high-quality labor force. In 2022, China's fiscal spending on education remained above 4 percent of its GDP for 10 consecutive years.

Third, whether a country can truly reap the demographic dividend depends on its developmental path. The Chinese government is putting more investment in digitization and technological innovation for high-quality growth. In 2022, the Chinese mainland rose to the 11th place on the Global Innovation Index released by the World Intellectual Property Organization.

The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF), a non-profit think tank in the U.S., warned that China "has surpassed" the U.S. in total innovation output. "China is positioned to evolve from an imitator to an innovator," an ITIF report said. While the massive population contributed to China's economic performance in the past decades, innovation now lays the foundation for sustained growth in the future.

Western media have been seizing every possible chance to attack China. But the fact suggests the opposite: China's demographic dividend is not disappearing and the driving force for the Chinese economy remains strong.

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