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The UN has reported that by mid 2023, India will have 2.9 million people more than China and claim the title as the most populous nation in the world. For many Western media, that seems like a seismic shift. CNN claimed that India overtaking China will "have significant economic implications for both Asian giants." The Wall Street Journal crowned the change as "shifting the world's 'center of gravity'" and specifically emphasized that India has been a "natural partner and investment destination for the U.S."

Is it that simple?

No. Wang Hui, an affiliated scholar at Cambridge University, a fellow of Taihe Institute and an expert of labor and immigration issues, said in an interview that when looking at the country's population number, experts pay attention to a range of factors "beyond just the raw number." "Demographic trends and patterns can help to gain a deeper understanding of the potential implications for a country’s economy, social welfare and other important areas," Wang said.

Breaking down China's demographic trends and patterns tells a more intricate story. As Wang pointed out, China has 880 million people of working age that is comparable to India. China also has a high labor force participation rate of 76 percent that is more than 20 percentage points higher than India's. And China's massive workforce is also better equipped with an average of 11 years of schooling. More than 200 milllion Chinese have received higher education.

According to the Global Innovation Index 2022 published by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), China ranks 11th among the 132 economies featured. It ranks first among the 36 upper-middle-income group countries. "Relative to GDP, China's performance is above expectations for its level of development," the WIPO report said.

"In this respect, China has been strongly investing in the education and training for its labor force to meet the economic demand," Wang said.

The raw population number without context doesn't hold a lot of meaning. Over the past four decades, more than 850 million Chinese have risen above the poverty threshold. By the end of 2020, China had eradicated absolute poverty, achieving the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development a decade ahead of schedule. According to the World Bank's International Poverty Standards, China's population lifted out of extreme poverty accounted for more than 70 percent of the global total over the same period.

And China, despite its challenges, remains strong in its position as a main contributor to global economic growth. Bloomberg recently described China's economy in 2023 so far as getting off to a "flying start" with its GDP beating expectations and the International Monetary Fund saying that China will be the biggest contributor to global output in the next five years. China's GDP expansion if expected to represent 22.6 percent of total world growth through 2028, according to Bloomberg's calculation. India is expected to follow at 12.9 percent.

Even as India is on course to surpass China on the number of citizens, China was, is and will go on to be the main engine that drives growth in Asia and beyond. And with its high-quality development, the Chinese people will continue to reap the benefits of a strong economy that goes full steam ahead.

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