Think tank rebukes 'groundless' China economic gloom rhetoric

There is no basis for the "Peak China" rhetoric, concluded a Chinese think tank report released Friday. The "China collapse" theory is similarly unsound.

The "Peak China" theory refers to a belief that China has reached its peak in terms of economic growth and global influence. Therefore, the country is due to experience a decline in the future.

The Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of Renmin University argued in the report that the research method employed by "Peak China" theorists has major flaws including gaps in rationale and weak research backing strong conclusions.

The "Peak China" theory asserts that a slowdown in China's economic growth means it has reached its peak. However, the institute argued that it is a natural circumstance that follows the evolution of economic development. Based on economic logic, the slowdown expresses neither an absolute nor relative peak.

The report also countered the thesis that China's economic growth will be suppressed by U.S. export restrictions on technology, arguing that China has made major advances in basic research and cutting-edge technologies despite U.S. suppression.

The consequence of sci-tech suppression will inevitably hurt both sides, leading to insufferable calamities to China and the U.S., the report contended, adding that a complete technology decoupling between the two countries is unlikely.

Chongyang analysts predict that China's economic rise will continue and surpass the U.S. in size by 2030. Driven by the four engines of technological advancement, structural upgrade, urban development and further reform and opening-up, China's economy will embark on a medium to high growth rate which is faster than the global average and the U.S. economy.

(Cover via CFP)

Search Trends