World
2023.06.16 19:18 GMT+8

What should Miami Heat do during the offseason to remain competitive?

Updated 2023.06.16 19:18 GMT+8
Li Xiang

Jimmy Butler (#22) and Bam Adebayo of the Miami Heat look on in Game 2 of the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, June 4, 2023. /CFP

The Miami Heat have entered the NBA offseason after losing the Finals for the second time in four years. Though the 4-1 series against the Denver Nuggets didn't seem very hopeful, the fact that the Heat went all the way there as the No. 8 seed of the Eastern Conference is epic enough.

However, what happened in the past is the past. The Heat's mission now is to keep their current lineup and, if possible, improve it. Neither will be easy to do.

First, two of their regularly rotating players, Gabe Vincent and Max Strus, will become free agents this summer. So will Kevin Love. Many were impressed by the work of Vincent and Strus in the playoffs and Love's performance on some of the nights in the postseason. Keeping them doesn't seem to be a question.

Gabe Vincent (#2) of the Miami Heat dribbles in Game 5 of the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, June 12, 2023. /CFP

The question is how much the Heat should pay them with their new contracts. Love, 34, may accept another veteran deal, but Vincent and Strus are unlikely to do so. Both are undrafted players and the biggest contract extension an undrafted player has ever signed in the NBA is the five-year, $90 million deal by the Heat with Duncan Robinson.

Robinson signed it in summer of 2021. He averaged 13.5 points, 3.7 triples at 44.6 percent and 13.1 points, 3.5 triples at 40.8 percent in the previous two seasons. However, he slipped so quickly and dramatically in the following two campaigns that he was basically removed out of the regular rotations in the middle of the 2022-23 regular season.

It's unfair to compare Vincent or Strus with Robinson, but it's also unwise to consider the two as star calibers. Despite their highlights in this year's playoffs, neither Vincent nor Strus has been consistent enough in all of the four series. Vincent scored only single-digit points in nine of the 22 games he played in the postseason. Strus failed to reach 10 points in 10 of the 23 playoff games in which he appeared.

Max Strus of the Miami Heat drives in Game 5 of the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, June 12, 2023. /CFP

Many Heat fans, media outlets and even the team are willing to praise Vincent and Strus because they performed much better than they were paid for with the undrafted players contracts of them. If the two sign bigger deals with the team and are paid in similar numbers to that of Robinson, everyone will be much less forgiving of them if they underperform in even a small part of the games.

Moreover, the Heat don't have enough cap space to sign lucrative extensions with Vincent or Strus. They already have the third-biggest payroll of over $171 million in the 2023-24 season, behind only the number of the Golden State Warriors and the Los Angeles Clippers, with the contracts they have at the moment. The NBA's luxury tax apron for the 2023-24 campaign is projected to be $169 million. Considering the league's increasingly harsher and harsher policies on punishing big spenders, the Heat will have to think very carefully before they spend every dollar.

Duncan Robinson (#55) of the Miami Heat shoots in Game 4 of the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, June 9, 2023. /CFP

Over $74 million of the Heat's $171 million of total salaries next season will go to Robinson, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and Victor Oladipo. Herro only made one appearance for the team in this year's playoffs. Oladipo played two games. Lowry and Robinson both played in all 23 of them, but averaged only a bit more than nine points per game each.

The contracts of both Lowry and Oladipo – if he exercises the players option – only have one year left, so it may not be difficult to trade them to teams that want to release salary space in summer 2024, especially when the trade deadline approaches. Nonetheless, both Herro and Robinson hold long-term deals. Herro has averaged 20.1 points per game during the 2022-23 regular season. Robinson managed to find his way back to the Heat's regular rotations in the playoffs. Therefore, it is now a good timing to trade them before future underperformance damages their trade values.

Tyler Herro (#14) of the Miami Heat looks on in Game 1 of the NBA Eastern Conference first-round playoffs against the Milwaukee Bucks at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, April 16, 2023. /CFP

The Heat's performance in the postseason this year proved how much they rely on Jimmy Butler on the offensive end and how badly they need a second scoring option who can perform better than Bam Adebayo. Butler, 33, has shown signs of having to save strength in the regular season to play better in the playoffs since he joined the Heat in 2019. He is also more vulnerable than before in injuries. Counting on him to outrun time in the future is unrealistic.

That's probably why the Heat are reportedly involved in trade rumors about Bradley Beal of the Washington Wizards. He has played only 90 of the team's 164 games in the past two seasons because of injuries and was not in a good form in many of the competitions he was in. However, Beal averaged 31.3 points per game in his prime two years ago and is able to switch freely between attacking off the dribble and off-ball offense. He is only 29 years old as well, too young to be held back by aging.

Kyle Lowry (#7) of the Miami Heat shoots in Game 5 of the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, June 12, 2023. /CFP

The Heat have six first-round draft picks from 2023 to 2029. Butler's contract includes a player option for the 2025-26 season, when he turns 36. Adebayo's deal ends in summer 2026 with no option. Beal's contract includes the player option for the 2026-27 season when he turns 33.

On today's NBA market, it won't be surprising if a team trade five or even six first-rounders (including swaps) for a player like Beal. That means the Heat may have to endure a poor record yet with no quality draft picks in four years, if they acquire Beal from the Wizards. Furthermore, Beal's salary is over $46.7 million for the 2023-24 season, which means the Heat will have to pack multiple players to make the trade happen, if they are allowed to do so. At the moment, they only have 11 players with contracts on their roster (both player and team options included). The team will need to sign more veterans and undrafted players to fill a complete roster.

Fortunately, the Heat are good at the latter, as that's how they landed Robinson, Vincent, Strus and Caleb Martin.

Copyright © 

RELATED STORIES