Editor's note: Alexander Ayertey Odonkor, a special commentator for CGTN, is a global economist with a keen interest in the social, environmental and economic landscape of both developing and developed countries, particularly in Asia, Africa and Europe. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Data from the United States Department of Agriculture show that U.S. exports to China for the fiscal year 2023 will reach $34.0 billion – chalking another milestone – for the third consecutive year, China has been the largest U.S. agriculture export market. During this period, the U.S. has witnessed record agricultural export values to China. From corn and soybeans, which account for a whopping share of the cash crop receipts of the U.S., to sorghum, tree nuts, chicken, beef and cotton, all these products which are major contributors to the U.S. farm economy, have experienced colossal export values to China.

To highlight a few, for the fiscal year 2022, soybeans accounted for almost one-half of U.S. agricultural exports to China at a record $16.4 billion, surpassing the 2021 record by over $2.2 billion. For the same year, U.S. sorghum exports to China nearly tripled compared to two years ago, reaching a record $2.2 billion. Overall, the record rise in agricultural export values to China in recent years has significantly bolstered growth in the U.S. farm economy, fostering the country's economic output.

For the fiscal year 2022, access to the Chinese market contributed significantly to U.S. agricultural exports reaching a record-high $196.4 billion, which supported an estimated 1.2 million jobs. In fact, the record rise in agriculture export to China has boosted economic activity and fostered job creation in both farm and nonfarm sectors of the U.S. economy: reflecting the output stimulated across the agriculture sector and related industries, as farmers, entrepreneurs and firms along the supply chain that produce, harvest, transport, process, store and market agricultural products increase output and labor to meet the demand in the Chinese market – the growing trend is not limited to the agriculture sector and related industries.

In fact, the pattern is evident in other key industries in the United States. Exports to China support a broad swath of the U.S. economy, contributing to livelihoods across the length and breadth of the country. According to the U.S.-China Business Council's recently released U.S. Exports to China report (2023), China was the United States' third-largest goods export market in 2022 and its sixth-largest services export market in 2021. By patronizing goods and services from the United States, in 2021, China supported 1.06 million jobs in the world's largest economy, becoming one of the three countries to achieve this feat – Canada and Mexico are the other two countries.

Amid several impediments, notably U.S.-China trade tensions, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, surprisingly U.S. exports to China have expanded significantly, supporting growth across various industries in America. Data from the United States Census Bureau show that U.S. exports to China for 2022, 2021 and 2020 reached $153.8 billion, $151.4 billion and $124.5 billion, respectively – showing significant growth in recent years. However, the growth could be short-lived, particularly with increasing attempts by the United States to decouple from China, thus eliminating trade and investment, which is severely hurting bilateral ties. The deteriorating relationship strongly indicates a gloomy future for trade between the world's two largest economies, which could adversely impact the global economy.

Considering that the United States and Chinese economies are deeply integrated, with the Asian country also exporting enormous goods including telephones and computers to America, consistent actions to decouple from China will have a deleterious impact, especially for the United States. Compared to Donald Trump's trade war with China which cost the U.S. 300,000 jobs, reduced GDP by an estimated 0.3 percent, and increased cost for average American households ($831 per year) as revealed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, decoupling from China has far greater economic ramifications. In January, the International Monetary Fund released a study that shows a fragmented world economy with two main trade blocs, separately spearheaded by China and the United States will have serious detrimental economic impact around the globe, especially for developing countries.

This is explained by the fact that, for several decades, international trade has been a catalyst for catch-up in incomes across countries, a reduction in global poverty, and the realization of higher standards of living. Trade, since the middle of the 20th century has enabled developing countries to integrate into the global economy, contributing significantly to improved productivity, creating jobs, fostering entrepreneurship, mitigating income inequalities and reducing extreme poverty in the developing world. However, with the U.S. aiming to decouple from China and increasingly pushing the world into two main economic blocs, developing countries will face tremendous challenges that will significantly constrain gains from international trade. But the impending doom could be averted, it is never too late. In fact, the huge economic loss to developing countries and the entire world, attributed to the U.S.'s decoupling from China should be more than enough to prompt a rethink. Policymakers in both countries should understand that promoting trade has a far greater positive impact on the world economy.       

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